Subject: Statistical anomaly in baseball
Date: Thu May 24 12:26:02 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:This is pretty impressive, if somewhat of a 'manufactured' stat.
However...……….this sentence doesn't seem right: "Justin Verlander lowered his ERA to an eye-popping 1.08 on the season by allowing just one earned run in six innings in a 4-1 win over the San Francisco Giants."
One earned run over 6 innings equates to 1.5 runs over 9 innings, so it seems to me that his ERA would have been *raised* to 1.08.
Link: Verlander and the 'stros keep it rolling
Date: Thu May 24 14:03:17 2018
User: BuzzClik
Message:Last I heard, Verlander's ERA was below 1.0, something like 0.98. So, one run in 6 innings would raise it to over 1.0.
Date: Thu May 24 14:19:04 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Glad someone else sees it (calculates it) the way I do.
Date: Thu May 24 15:52:05 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Nice link, ix.
On the downside...…….one knows one is "getting some age" when one realizes that 75 years ago is 'only' back to 1946. I'm only barely getting used to this 'new' century.
Date: Sat Jul 28 06:42:43 2018
User: JackK2018
Message:Chris Sale of the Red Sox is arguably the best pitcher in baseball now. Last night 6 scoreless innings, shortest numbers of innings pitched EVER to reach 200 K's in MLB history, his WHIP is .87, ERA is 2.04 K/walk ratio is 207/33!!!!!
Date: Sat Jul 28 11:24:55 2018
User: mrbuck
Message:A case can be made for Max Scherzer, WHIP .90, ERA 2.30, K/BB is 200/36. He became the 4th pitcher to strike out 200 batters for 7 straight seasons along with Roger Clemens, Walter Johnson, and Tom Seaver. Seaver is top of the list with 9 straight seasons.
Both are likely to win Cy Youngs this year, Sales first, Scherzers 4th, if they continue pitching this well until season's end.
mrbuck
Date: Sat Jul 28 13:58:51 2018
User: MrFixit
Message:I like Eroldis. No one (even he) doesn't know where he's gonna throw but it's gonna be fast!
Date: Sun Jul 29 04:48:00 2018
User: Klepp
Message:Nottingham had better turn out to be a good catcher (though wringing one's hands over that trade now seems admittedly foolish, but DAMN! Davis' OPS is mid 800s over and over and over).
Date: Sun Jul 29 10:43:09 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I 'kinda' liked Ryne Duren, although he was, as we know, just pure speed. Loose cannon, in the literal sense. But...…..until The_Interpreter posted the wiki article, I had no idea Ryne Sandberg was named for him. In retrospect, it's not surprising; I just didn't know it (or possibly I did way back when and forgot it).
Date: Sat Aug 18 10:52:18 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:That's pretty wild. Most shocking, to me, is that that's not happened since 1912. I almost want to predict it's not accurate, but that's nothing but a gut feeling.
Date: Sat Aug 18 11:14:12 2018
User: The_Inquisitor
Message:gut feeling? Do you work in the White House?
Date: Sat Aug 18 11:26:16 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:No, the TummyAche ward of Walter Reed. Been busy around here.
Date: Sun Aug 19 08:50:04 2018
User: BuzzClik
Message:The runner on third gets a huge assist in that triple play, at least the specific nature of the play in which the batter was not out. If the runner stays on third or breaks for home, that specific triple play doesn't happen.
But, the runner allowed himself to be quickly tagged out, so the triple play was completed in a heartbeat.
Date: Sun Aug 19 10:17:18 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Another interesting article about the metrics used for deciding the Cy Young. Although I don't follow baseball very closely these years/decades...……..I'm pretty sure Scherzer gets the nod with the voters over DeGrom.
Meanwhile...…….on the Verlander ERA watch...…….it has ballooned to a horrific 2.52 - being 3.71 over his last 15 games. Don't know how the 'stros (who I *still* can't believe are in the AL) can keep him around.
For those really intrigued...……..ESPN's "Cy Young tracker":
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
Link: DeGrom's wonderful, tho frustrating, season
Date: Sun Aug 19 10:29:08 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Oh, btw..……...DeGrom's current ERA, for comparison, is 1.71, after winning last night.
And would any discussion of recent pitching performances be complete without a nod to the White Sox's newest hurler?
Link: She brings it - a nice "habit" to have.....
Date: Sun Aug 19 12:33:39 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Another interesting article about the metrics used for deciding the Cy Young. Although I don't follow baseball very closely these years/decades...……..I'm pretty sure Scherzer gets the nod with the voters over DeGrom.
Meanwhile...…….on the Verlander ERA watch...…….it has ballooned to a horrific 2.52 - being 3.71 over his last 15 games. Don't know how the 'stros (who I *still* can't believe are in the AL) can keep him around.
For those really intrigued...……..ESPN's "Cy Young tracker":
http://www.espn.com/mlb/features/cyyoung
Link: DeGrom's wonderful, tho frustrating, season
Date: Mon Oct 1 17:08:37 2018
User: Klepp
Message:I'm not sure if I ought to be surprised OAK DH(OF) Khris Davis batted .247 this season.
Date: Mon Oct 1 19:24:57 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Wow. Stunning.
Date: Mon Oct 1 22:41:38 2018
User: Dr.Bombay
Message:Oakland pulled Khris after the 6th inning of their last game just to make sure he didn’t get a hit in his last at bat and get to .248
Date: Wed Oct 3 16:27:15 2018
User: Klepp
Message:If no, I think he'd have walked and bunted for sacrifice in his final two PA's (just an opinion).
Date: Wed Oct 3 17:48:34 2018
User: The_Inquisitor
Message:Can anyone find a player who had at least 123 runs batted in and hit less than .247?
Date: Wed Oct 3 18:20:38 2018
User: Klepp
Message:Gorman Thomas (OF) MIL, 1979--123 RBI, .244 BA.
Date: Wed Oct 3 18:48:57 2018
User: Klepp
Message:I tried this, but since I have no subscription, I couldn't access the identity of the *4* unidentified links that arose from the particular search: RBI>=123, BA<=.247...I was merely shown the HR totals of the four: 48, 48, 45, and 35...(Gorman's being the 45, ostensibly)...I would have given the link to my particular page's results, but since the link's URL was too long to copy and paste below, didn't work...
Link: STATS
Date: Thu Oct 4 09:06:57 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Now that's a great inquisition, The_Inquistitor. When I saw it, I was out and about, and didn't have any time to research it. I did quickly check on a few of the obvious suspects, like Kluszewski (his BA was generally higher than I remembered), Frank Howard, Canseco, Dick Allen, and one or two more I can't think of at the moment, but didn't think of (Gorman) Thomas. Maybe later I'll try to think of some more possibilities.
That said………….check out this great story on Khris Davis...……..
Link: Khris Davis seems like a pretty good guy
Date: Thu Oct 4 10:09:57 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Killebrew. 1962: 126 RBI; .243. He had 48 HR that year, so that's one of them you saw, Klepp.
Other "contestants" who I've ruled out, although they've had 'worthy' seasons, are: Thome, Sosa (119/.251 in 1997), ARod, Schmidt, Ryan Howard (146/.251 in 2008 and 95/.223 in 2014), Canseco (113/.257 in 198), Granderson (106/.232 in 2012), Andruw Jones (94/.222 in 2007), Jeff Kent (121/.250 in 1997), McGwire (108/.235 in 1990), Giambi, and Chili Davis (112/.243 in 1993).
Will keep looking as time and interest allow.
Date: Thu Oct 4 23:04:26 2018
User: Klepp
Message:I initially suspected Dave Kingman, but his average later in his career was too high (ha! Dave Kingman's average was too high!)...but after a deal of digging up (these-days) rather old, unknown names like Rudy York and Frank Sauer...then digging up only moderately old names like Ron Kittle, Rocky Colavito, Orlando Cepeda, Dick Stuart, and "The Bull" Greg Luzinski, I finally came upon the answer: though I didn't get this answer until I'd unearthed 80s and 90s candidates like: Howard Johnson, Tony Armas, Bob Horner, Jack Clark, Will Clark, and Fred "Crimedog" McGriff.................until
VOILA!
**CECIL FIELDER DET 1B 1992 (35/124/.244)**
Thus , I believe the answer is merely these four:
Khris Davis 2018 (48/123/.247)
Cecil Fielder 1992 (35/124/.244)
Gorman Thomas 1979 (45/123/.244)
Harmon Killebrew 1962 (48/126/.243)
I won't bet my life on it, though I'd bet a beer on it.
Date: Fri Oct 5 00:58:12 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Good work. Will save me the trouble. Kingman was one of the first ones I thought of and checked yesterday, too, but forgot to mention him. (And was similarly surprised at his BA numbers! ) And I had already checked Colavito, Crimedog, and some others, but didn't mention them because they really weren't close enough. Pretty interesting club.
Date: Tue Apr 9 04:02:26 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:This could go either here or in the "crazy baseball occurence" thread, but I'm putting it here because of the "Davis" connection.
*Chris* Davis is NOT Khris Davis. Whereas Khris can be relied upon to a ridiculous degree to hit .247 year after year (see discussion above), *Chris* got paid $161 million dollars for 3 years to hit .199 -- and has now reached a much, much lower low......
Put me in coach!!
Link: New record for non-pitcher batting futility
Date: Tue Apr 9 08:29:08 2019
User: BuzzClik
Message:This is a sad one. I cannot imagine the damage being done to his psyche. The Baltimore fans have lost their patience, and justifiably so.
Date: Sat Apr 13 23:16:36 2019
User: BuzzClik
Message:Davis finally broke his hitless streak tonight. He'd gone 0-54 before hitting 3-5 in Boston. After his first hit, the Red Sox gave him a nice round of applause.
Date: Wed Apr 17 13:34:33 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Meanwhile...........*Khris* Davis (for the moment) leads the major leagues with 10 HRs. (And is batting 23 points above his 'normal' .247 at .270.)
Date: Thu Apr 18 03:18:26 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:While that is an amazing stat in one way, in another, is it? Near the bottom of that article is this line: "Dating back to his MVP season in 2010, he’s only hit eight infield pop ups." I.e., less than one infield pop-up/year. Those of us who know baseball know that certain players, or more properly, certain types of swings (along with plate patience and a great eye), don't produce many pop-ups. Surely it's still a very odd stat, but when one considers how rarely he pops up (almost certainly due to the way he swings), then it's not quite so amazing. [In fact, I'd say that his 8 infield pop-ups since 2010 (>5000 AB) is an even *more* crazy stat.]
It's *almost* one of those 'manufactured' stats, like "who leads the major leagues in ground-rule doubles on Tuesdays in May and August?" Or "how many times-at-bat has it been since player A has hit into two consecutive double plays in a game not on the West Coast or south of the Mason-Dixon Line?" You know.......if you ask enough varied and detailed questions, statistical anomalies are going to "pop up". These darn computers know everything.
(Not to denigrate your post, Klepp; still quite interesting.)
Date: Thu Apr 18 12:25:32 2019
User: Klepp
Message:Considering his stratospheric career OBP, Votto doesn't ever need to pull himself out of his current slump to still go HOF first or second ballot...(he is a slow April/May guy, if I recall)...but regarding seemingly odd statistical trends, that's why data-inclined Joe Baseball Fan could never really be "surprised" if Votto did same pop out numerously "odd"numbers of times this season, or none at all...as Humans we're programmed and fully prepared to see tell-tale (even prophetic) patterns, when oftentimes they just don't exist...sort of quantum-like...(makes it fun, to me)...
Date: Thu Apr 18 12:53:15 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:I never would have thought of such an event in quantum-like terms, but it's really not a bad analogy. So today or tomorrow, we may read of the exact same odd stat from player B, who popped out to the catcher for the first time in 5,000+ ABs.
Date: Wed May 15 12:25:25 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Chris Sale. 1-5 going into last night.
17 Ks in 7 innings - a new record.
24 total Rockies Ks, yet they still won - second highest ever in a win.
I watched the ESPN highlights of this last night, and he was making guys look silly.
Besides the more fact-centered hyperlink at the bottom , I give you this BoSox-centric nice, feel-good account:
https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/5/15/18624497/chris-sale-seventeen-strikeouts-rockies-loss
Link: Chris Sale mows 'em down
Date: Sat May 18 04:24:54 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:The 'stros Ryan Pressley tonight set a new record for consecutive scoreless appearances with 39 (against the BoSox). I think technically he allowed a run in the postseason last year, but that doesn't seem to count the way most are 'scoring' it.
Link: 39 straight scoreless appearances
Date: Fri May 24 12:09:03 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Meanwhile..............exactly one year from the date at the top of this page (at least on my machine).........a Verlander update. Really nice article about his continued prowess with some gaudy stats.
Link: Verlander keeps continuing to be Verlander
Date: Sun Jul 7 14:52:00 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Josh Bell has put up some pretty incredible stats so far this year. In addition to the accomplishments detailed in the link below (mostly for his incredible month of May - and well worth digesting), since that time he has set the NL record for most extra-base hits before the All-Star break with 59. Don't know how that plays out in an apples-and-oranges comparison for number of games, etc., but still quite studly stuff.
Where ya at, Snowguy?
Link: Josh Bell smackin' the ball around this year
Date: Mon Jul 8 11:27:55 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:I think it's pretty remarkable that only 1 team (Marlins) in the NL is below .400 at the All-Star break. In fact......they are the only team below .440. In the AL, meanwhile, 4 teams are below .375.
Part of that is the current NL 'dominance' (relatively speaking) of the interleague games. As of June 19th (the latest data I could (very) quickly find, the NL is winning 55.9% of those games, which is on track to be their best year ever in interleague play. Last year the NL broke a 14-year losing streak to their junior brethren. But I think it's more due to there being several (apparently) strong teams in the AL right now - and thus disparity in wins and losses. Just a little statistical "fluke-age".
Link: Check the standings
Date: Fri Jul 26 14:29:15 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:As we all know, the Red Sox vs. Yankees has a looong and storied history. Last night, tho, was "one for the ages", as much as a regular season game can be.
Most runs (19) Red Sox have *ever* scored against Yankees.
The Yankees' Masahiro Tanaka allowed 12 runs in 3.1 innings, which is the most by any Yankee pitcher since ERA became a stat in 1913.
Red Sox had *8* players with 2 or more RBIs, which ties the record for most in AL history.
Red Sox also had 14 extra-base hits, which ties for 2nd highest the the club's history.
Season-high (for Red Sox) for runs, extra-base hits, hits, and doubles - all in one game.
Rafael Devers got to 30 RBI - for July. The youngest Red Sox player to accomplish that many RBIs in a month since Ted Williams in 1939.
There may be even more; that's all I know of for the moment.
Meanwhile..............................Minnesota's Nelson Cruz crushed 3 HRs last night against the Whiter of the the Sox teams. That's impressive, but what makes it a 'record' is that he's the third player in 3 days to achieve that feat - which is a record. Never been done before in MLB history. The other two were the Mets' Robinson Cano on Tuesday night, and the Cardinals' Paul DeJong Wednesday night.
BTW, that slugging by Cruz allows him to join a list that includes Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Frank Thomas and Alex Rodriguez - those that have 3 HR in a game after age 39.
Finally, and almost trivially compared to most of the stuff above, at 39 years and 24 days old, Cruz is the second-oldest player in the modern era (since 1900) with seven homers in a six-game span. Graig Nettles was 40 years and 4 days old for the sixth game of his streak in August 1984.
Date: Fri Jul 26 18:12:19 2019
User: Denny
Message:What do you think is going to happen Stros vs. Cards? Is Verlander slated to start? I think that Cards probably get tonight but they lose the series.
I'm hoping for a CLE win tonight with a MIN loss so CLE will be tied for 1st in their division...
Date: Sat Jul 27 15:45:32 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Ok.............back to the anomalous stuff in baseball..........
Looking back to my last post above, see that Nelson Cruz's 3 dingers in one game made it 3 straight days in which somebody launched 3 in a game. But wait....................................Mookie Betts, yes, did it again last night. Yes, the new record is now not 3, but 4. Good thing the balls aren't juiced, right?
Furthermore..............that's (already) the 5th time in his career that he's had 3 HRs in a game - which ties him (with Kingman, ARod, Joe Carter, Carlos Delgado, and McGwire), for 3rd in history behind Sosa's and Johnny Mize's 6 each. And Betts is a mere 26.
Ok, baseball has a long history, with umpteen thousands of games, and well over a hundred season's worth. Never before had there been a 3-HR game 3 straight days. And now there are 4. We're into extreme standard deviations again. 9? 10? 12?? More? Boggles the mind......
Link: What?!?! Another one?!?
Date: Sat Jul 27 17:39:17 2019
User: Denny
Message:Well for anomalies, how bout the pounding the RedSox gave the Yanks the other night? Set a bunch of records.
Date: Sat Jul 27 17:49:57 2019
User: TNmountainman
Message:Uh..........................I know you're stretched thin, but read my post Fri Jul 26 14:29:15 2019 above. The one beginning with "As we all know, the Red Sox vs. Yankees has a looong and storied history. Last night, tho, was "one for the ages", as much as a regular season game can be."
And as to *NON*-anomalous baseball......................see link below, for just one example, and maybe the best for your trains of thought about Verlander, Cards, 'stros, etc. (since it's for this year). The guy who originated this site made an absolutely wonderful, robust search function to sort these things out.
And juuuust in case it's not obvious................merely giving you a hard time. ;)
("I'm kinda sadistic like that", he said.)
Link: 2019 more 'normal' baseball thread
Date: Sat Jul 27 19:48:04 2019
User: Denny
Message:Ha! I knew I read that somewhere! Yeah, I do tend to hit this stuff fast.
Post follow-up