Subject: 1,000

Date: Wed Feb 14 17:54:11 2018
User: Turpin827
Message:
Please forgive a quick brag Just hit 1,000 in 9X3 - the 4th time that has been done! Now in 3rd place on all-time list

Date: Wed Feb 14 18:11:08 2018
User: TitanicTony
Message:
Congratulations -- well done!! Here are the current all-time top 4 in 9x3: 1. fnord,............. 2041,...... 2041,........ 0,......... 2168,...... 99.95%,...... 4:20,...... 2831d 2. bwi,...................... 92,...... 1556,........ 0,......... 1649,...... 99.94%,...... 5:56,...... 1902d 3. Turpin827,.... 1007,...... 1007,..... 32,......... 2024,...... 99.70%,...... 5:27,...... 0:01 4. ValpoJim,............ 11,...... 1004,....... 0,...... 19597,...... 99.10%,...... 2:27,...... 11:33

Date: Wed Feb 14 20:38:56 2018
User: jamesblackburn-lynch
Message:
Turpin827, Certainly something to be proud of. But given that the highest ever is 2041 and second is 1556...you just know that an unwinnable game is waiting around the corner. Scares me every time I play a 12x0. Always sure this next one will be it. 9x3's are far less scary...and we all now having a streak of 1000 doesn't make it any more likely for the next one to be a loser...but still...scary. James

Date: Thu Feb 15 02:44:16 2018
User: HopDiriDiriDattiriDittiriDom
Message:
Recently I ran into an unwinnable and that made me wonder what the average streak lengths would be. I decided to code a MonteCarlo simulation using the stats given in "unwoncnt.txt" (link to it was posted somewhere in this forum). Yes 9x3 is the least scary of them. Here are my results rounded to two digits after DP: 12x0: 13.97 9x3: 3704.16 10x2: 1851.24 7x5: 1135.67 etc. Of course this is based on the assumption that we always win if it is winnable but we are humans sometimes we make mistakes. Take 12x0 for example: 13.97 games you win and 1 game you lose. That makes a win percantage of 93.32%: 13.97/14.97=0.9332 Check out 12x0 alltime list and that confirms my result. For example d164280 has 91.80% winning percentage. I can provide the details about my MC code if you are interested. Even I can post the code (which is not so long).

Date: Thu Feb 15 07:16:38 2018
User: Turpin827
Message:
Wow that is fascinating Hop! I would not have predicted that about 9X3 vs 10X2, since in my experience you run into more difficult games in 9X3. Games won by less than 50% of previous players are common, but quite rare in 10X2. What are the figures for 13X0? Of course that doesn't take into account the difficulty level, which certainly makes a huge difference in the zero or one freecell variants, but much less so once you've got two or more freecells. In 13x0 my guess would be unwinnables start at about 1 in 25 or 30 at level 5, rising to about 1 in 8 or 10 at level 10.

Date: Thu Feb 15 07:35:00 2018
User: TitanicTony
Message:
Hey Turpin827, according to my count for 13x0, 521 level-5 games have never been won, and 1654 level-10 games have never been won. 521/32768 = 1.59% = about 1/63. 1654/32768 = 5.05% = about 1/20. Possibly a few of the never won games are winnable??

Date: Thu Feb 15 11:03:05 2018
User: jamesblackburn-lynch
Message:
Hop, What is your definition of "recently"? I know I'm not the only one wondering which streak you lost and when you are coming back. But it's not recent in my mind. I was doing the same type of calculation but much more naively. I calculated the odds of winning 1000 9x3's in a row assuming purely random deals, given the same data you are using about them. I don't know MonteCarlo well enough to follow the code, but maybe others would be interested. The "average streak length" you got for 9x3 is greater than anyone has ever done. Suspicious? Or says 9x3's are harder even when they are winnable? That would match Turpin's experience. On the other hand, the best ever streak for 12x0 is way over its "average." My guess...because the 12x0 number is so small lots of people pass the average and some get super lucky (best streak ever is 66, I believe). But to beat the average in 9x3 you gotta pay serious attention for 3000 games. Still...someone needs to beat the average. James

Date: Fri Feb 16 01:54:09 2018
User: HopDiriDiriDattiriDittiriDom
Message:
James, "Recently" means more than one month back. I'm stuck with a 7x5 but I haven't given up yet. I'm trying to make sure I don't give up a winnable game. It happened to me many times. I gave up many winnable games thinking "hey no way, this can't be winnable". Yes 9x3 seems high but that's what my calculation gives to me. Yes for 12x0 there are many streaks way over the average but the more streaks you play the closer you get to it. many times I ran into unwinnable 12x0 games way below the average (even the first when starting a new streak). Turpin827, For 13x0, it's 34.70 according to my method. So we get a winning percentage of 97.20% (34.70/35.70). Check out the alltime list for 13x0, no one with >10000 games played can beat that percentage. For more on MC simulation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method