Subject: Non-contest NFL chatter
Date: Sun Sep 16 17:01:28 2018
User: poptart
Message:I just got home and found my guys behind. I know they were predicted to lose today, so not surprised. I just saw an AMAZING catch by Cole (84 JAX) and then the catch in the EZ for a TD.
A friend of mine was up in Sugarbush with me (and many others) last night, and today he's at the game in FL. I hope he sees a better Q2-4!
I have no idea how the matches stack up ATM.
Date: Sun Sep 16 19:57:16 2018
User: poptart
Message:my picks sucked this week.
pats game - sucked donkey dung. JAX showed up and played all 4 quarters.
Date: Sun Sep 16 19:58:11 2018
User: hotnurse
Message:Well, how 'bout them Colts...and the Chiefs for that matter? (sorry pop, w.e have three sons in KC, Ks).
Date: Sun Sep 16 20:28:25 2018
User: poptart
Message:S'all good, hottie! I don't take fan choices personally! It's all fun and games (until they skunk my pats! Haha)
Date: Mon Sep 17 14:33:46 2018
User: hotnurse
Message:Pop, not sure why I thought that the Chiefs were playing the Pats yesterday...still, though, the Pats got a pat on the behind yesterday.
Date: Mon Sep 17 15:06:19 2018
User: poptart
Message:oh don't I know it! ugly! (I'm sure some would think it was a beautiful thing! lmao!)
stoopid Edelman... he's my main man, but I'm mad at him for being a dope!
Date: Thu Sep 20 23:44:04 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:So, the Steelers are the last-place team in their division? The only winless? Ouch...
Date: Fri Sep 21 13:54:54 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:It really is cool to see your team looking up at the Browns, no? Not that I hate your city or your team - only that they've had far more than their share of success, as I've said before. C'mon...…...let others have their turn(s)!
Date: Fri Sep 21 23:40:36 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I was so happy to see the Browns win.
Date: Sun Sep 23 21:55:07 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Interesting. Lions 13-Pats 3 at the half. I have the Pats to win, but I am no fan. In fact, if the Pats win, I win. But if the Pats lose, I also "win."
Date: Sun Sep 23 22:44:47 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:That's the problem with these types of things. All hail the lowly Browns, Lions, and Bills (gonna post something separately about them later)! There's games where I might think I can pick a winner........but thankfully I couldn't let myself pull for pop's Patriots over the Lions (for example).
Date: Sun Sep 23 23:23:42 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Funny (I guess.) Six picks and the only loser for me is the Pats. :(
Date: Mon Sep 24 02:25:02 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Well, the Bills may not know geography (or at least the pilot of their plane doesn't), but they sure laid waste to the point spread against them today. Oddsmakers had made the Bills 16.5-point underdogs today (see significance of that in the link below), but they won by 21, making a 37.5-point switcheroo. Similarly, altho to a much lesser degree, the 6.5-point underdog Lions thrashed the Pats by 16, which is a 22.5-point turnaround.
The variance of the Bills victory is numbing. That chart goes back 48 years!
".....on average, the NFL sees a game with a 15-point spread in the first three weeks of the season only once every five or so years."
It will be interesting to see if Nate's guys do a follow-up. It would be nice to see the standard deviation of that big of a miss of the point spread. 3.5? 4?
So...……...all the downtrodden Great Lakes teams won today (Green Bay doesn't count because they're not downtrodden), at least the NFL ones. I didn't check on the Argonauts or Tiger Cats. Good for the league.
Link: Who cares about geography! Let's play football!
Date: Sun Sep 30 23:38:54 2018
User: joeygray
Message:Weird. Something looked wrong with Ben, he had a lot of bad throws, what looked like unforced errors. Did we know of anything before the game?
Date: Mon Oct 1 01:13:23 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Crazy games all way 'round today. Parity a strong force for the time being. Will there be a reversion to the mean later on, so to speak?
Date: Wed Oct 3 09:42:05 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:It would be refreshing to see the Steelers coaches make a half-time adjustment. The Steelers haven't played a second half so far this season.
Date: Wed Oct 3 14:15:54 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Decided to 'throw' this into this thread instead of the more general "recent sports oddities" thread. This is pretty granular, but backs up what I've been thinking from the little bit of NFL I've watched live this year. I guess I'm sort of down on NFL football lately because of the concussion/traumatic brain injury factor. It's a passing game these days, with the run used more as a diversionary tactic. And I know - that's been the trend for a while; but this season is "off the charts" (see story).
Link: "greatest passing week in passing history"?
Date: Thu Oct 4 12:20:23 2018
User: hotnurse
Message:Yikes, I am afraid that tonight's game between the Colts and Pats will not go my wished direction. TY is out for an unspecified number of games and Luck has not had much luck lately. But, the Pats haven't played well either for the last few games. What cha think,guys?
Date: Thu Oct 4 12:43:48 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Hard to know who to root for - the cheaters, or the leave-town-in-the-middle-of-the-night flatlanders. Maybe hope for a tie?
Although Luck lost Sunday, as the article I linked above stated, he did pass for more than 450 yds.
Date: Thu Oct 4 13:33:45 2018
User: joeygray
Message:Edelman's return is huge for the Pats, even if he's only 80 or 90 percent. Brady and Gronk missed him bad.
Date: Thu Oct 4 14:17:44 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Yeah, but remember, poptart's mad at him. That could hurt his performance.
Date: Sun Oct 21 16:22:16 2018
User: poptart
Message:That was ONE helluva finish to the Pats game!
Date: Sun Oct 21 19:58:18 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:How about this fort a future contest? Each player has to pick one team each week that's at least (by Vegas books) a two-point underdog.
(As should be expected, most of our picks now are favorites or at least even money.)
Or, instead, how about a pick that goes off at at least a two-point (Vegas sports books) underdog, a win by that team brings a half-point or a full-point bonus. No requirements, but a calculated risk that could pay off. The person who took that risk and won, would swing from a -1 loss to a +2 win for the week.
Heck. Perhaps the commissioners could make it a change for the second half of the season...
Date: Sun Oct 21 22:52:12 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:It might be time to write off the rest of the season--all the payers get to hang out with LeVeon Bell in Florida--Just UPS the Super Bowl Trophy to Kansas City. (38-10 in the third quarter tonight.)
Date: Mon Oct 22 14:24:31 2018
User: poptart
Message:I'm not going to be changing the rules for the second half of the season. If someone wants to take that on, I will pass the baton. I'm struggling just keeping up with my picks and keeping track of the current rules. I've been under the weather since returning from vacation. almost 2 weeks now.
I'll gladly continue with the current contest, if nobody wants to take over. That much I know I can handle.
Date: Mon Oct 22 17:42:53 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:We appreciate it pop. It was just a thought that popped into my mind, as a future possibility. At present, it comes down to who can pick the favorites that win, instead of the favorites that lose.
And no, I won't take over. This is a blessing for me!
Take care, and get well.
Date: Mon Oct 22 21:37:22 2018
User: poptart
Message:TY!
Date: Tue Oct 23 08:46:09 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:"Like most Steagles and most NFL players in 1943, Bova had some identifiable malady — flat feet, poor vision, partial deafness, bleeding ulcers — that the military found highly rejectable. Bova’s primary rejectable was that he was blind in one eye and partially blind in the other, but, as Art Rooney Sr. reportedly claimed, “He could hear the ball coming.”
Yes, the Phil-Pitt Steagles of 75 years ago...
"That specific brand of resolve was not seen as a great public service at the time. President Franklin D. Roosevelt had written to the Commissioner of Baseball to urge that the games persist during the war for the morale of the nation, but pro football could drop dead and nearly did."
(They lost lots of games, but may have saved the NFL.)
Link: The Steagles...
Date: Tue Oct 23 09:12:39 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:By the way, "Bova" mentioned above, "blind in one eye and couldn't see out of the other," as we say today, led the Steagles in receiving :
"Bova would go on to lead the Steagles in receiving yards — 419 on 17 catches for a whopping 24.6 yards per catch and five touchdowns — and he would do it again in 1945 with post-war rosters at full strength."
Date: Tue Oct 23 09:59:11 2018
User: poptart
Message:wow... that's an amazing story!
Date: Tue Oct 23 10:06:37 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Yep. How about this?
"It was at Forbes Field 75 years ago this month that the Steagles established an NFL record that stands to this day, though it’s been equaled three times — 10 fumbles in one game. And they won by two touchdowns."
Date: Sun Oct 28 17:14:34 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Above, I posted an idea for future play:
"How about this fort a future contest? Each player has to pick one team each week that's at least (by Vegas books) a two-point underdog.
(As should be expected, most of our picks now are favorites or at least even money.)
Or, instead, how about a pick that goes off at at least a two-point (Vegas sports books) underdog, a win by that team brings a half-point or a full-point bonus. No requirements, but a calculated risk that could pay off. The person who took that risk and won, would swing from a -1 loss to a +2 win for the week.
-------------------------------------------
If we were to chart that course, it could be handled like this: Post a Vega Sports Book odds listing on, say, Wednesday. Say there are 10 games wherein a team is a 2-point or more underdog. That is final for the week. Any changes in odds later don't matter. Just choose a game wherein you want to pick the dog. Say the team is a 2.5-point dog on Wednesday, and it moves to 1.5-points on Friday. No matter, It plays as a two-point (or more) underdog that week.
Now, say you decide to go with a 1-point dog because you like the team--it's your favorite--and it later moves to 3 points. No matter; it would not close as a 2-point or more dog. The listing on Wednesday rules.
Just an embellishment on my idea, for whatever it's worth.
Date: Mon Oct 29 10:46:31 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I meant to comment earlier on your idea, Snowguy, just didn't make time. I kinda like the idea, but also pop is apparently too overworked to implement something like that this year. That said, it wouldn't be that hard to do - but the record-keeping would get squirrely. But if she wants to dial that up, I wouldn't have any objections. But it sure adds a layer of complexity. With parity the way it is, one could almost play it that way, anyway. For example, the Lions/Seahawks game yesterday. Altho the Lions were probably favored (I think; I really don't know), I decided that one was probably a toss-up. Sort of the same with Saints/Vikes. As a matter of fact, I *wanted* to pick the Lions over the Seahawks, but didn't have faith they'd make it. Soooo...……...if'n I wasn't on the side of the Lions to prevail, I would have picked the Seahawks. See what I mean? But that said, it'd still be a reward for 'bravery' to go against the book. IF such were to be instituted, tho, I think make it at least 3 points instead of 2 (odds-wise, not bonus-wise). And with us only picking 3 games/week, and the average # of choices per week being only about 5-6, chances would be few, but valuable.
How do you all like my set-up of 3 games, and having to wait two weeks to use teams again? I think it's about right in terms of forcing moderately hard choices, but not too hard.
Date: Tue Oct 30 00:10:38 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:How about this? ONLY When picking a three-point or greater underdog, you can choose from any team on the board. The limitations we have now for two weeks after a team is played, would not apply to underdogs. (The limitations would continue for all favorites, even-money, and teams down to a 2.5-point dog. (As you can see, I am adopting your wisdom of going with a three-point underdog instead of two points.)
Again, you can play any underdog that is shown as 3 points or greater via some Las Vegas sports book, as .shown on Wednesday, no matter if or when you played them before. That gives a full slate of potential underdogs to play, but a maximum of one underdog played each week.
Date: Tue Oct 30 21:35:57 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:More than 100 present and former Steelers and owners, staff, etc., attended funerals today It frankly makes me proud. Not because of fleeting football glory, rather apparent humanity
Link: Two busloads of Steelers pay their respects
Date: Wed Oct 31 09:08:20 2018
User: poptart
Message:That's a great show of humanity - something I wish there was more of these days.
Date: Wed Oct 31 10:00:01 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Yes, agreed.
And I kinda like your idea Snowy. One per week, at least 2.5-point underdog. And can then re-use. One would have to be careful on which book we would decide to use. I'm not savvy these days on who all does it. I know there's quite a few. And I have no way to discern which one to go with. Also, **IF** Commish poptart were to decide to take that on...…..we would have to specify in our picks we were taking that option, so she could verify. And this is not to say that I am asking her to decide to do this. She's stated she doesn't really want to fancy it up this year. What sayeth thou, Huffy?
Date: Wed Oct 31 17:01:54 2018
User: poptart
Message:I've never bet against odds, always straight up. TBH, not sure how it's done. People tell me the gist, but without seeing actual info, I just haven't a clue how to do it. Maybe Snowy could take this offline and send me some sample info for this upcoming week and how one would place their picks, outcome, and how commiss would keep some sort of tally.
Date: Wed Oct 31 21:52:34 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Here's one I just found at random for Snowy's team:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5)
That means that the Ravens are a 3-point favorite. You can think of it like this -- one must 'take away' 3 points from the Ravens to make the teams appear "equal". So whichever team is associated with the minus sign is the favorite. And this is a good example, as the 3 points is just above the proposed limit of (at least) 2.5 points Snowy and I suggest. So...........if he were to so choose, he could pick the Steelers, and be rewarded (if they won) because they were the underdogs by more than 2.5 points.
And to be clear, we would not be playing against the book (odds); we would only care who wins. So Snowguy might beat the odds........but lose his pick for this contest. He'd be picking the Steelers to actually win, not just to get within less than 3 points.
(The 47.5 is what's called the "over/under". One can place bets on how much scoring will take place for both teams together. That won't concern us.)
Hope that helps.
Date: Wed Oct 31 23:30:48 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Here's this week's example:
On this page: MGM Sports Book. Here are the underdog (those not shown are not favorites nor underdogs by at least 3 points"
OAK (3 points underdog to SF)
DET (5 points) to MIN)
PIT (3 points to BAL)
TB (6.5 points to CAR)
NYJ (3 points to MIA)
BUF (10 points to CHI)
GB (5.5 points to NE)
TN (6 points to DAL)
All other games are closer than 3 points.
Picking any underdog in the left column would get the bonus. And, because you picked them as an underdog, you would be able to play them the next week if you wanted.
Link: https://www.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline/
Date: Wed Oct 31 23:42:09 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Mea culpa. On a few picks, I accidentally chose odds from the first column, when I had announced the second column. (MGM-MIRAGE)
It made no actual difference, however, because all odds taken from the first column were very close between to MGM-MIRAGE. To avoid making the mistake when it would cause a problem, I suggest we go with the first column instead, (CAESARS-HILTON.) Easy to pluck numbers from that column.
Date: Thu Nov 1 04:27:12 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:.......and thus ends Denny's worries that he could conceivably run into legal troubles from the "Chat" division of his multinational conglomerate......
Date: Sun Nov 11 13:21:02 2018
User: poptart
Message:Ugh..l TEN had a great opening kickoff return which they were able to capitalize into a TD.
Pats responded with... FG.
I hope this doesn't continue throughout the game!
In my other contest, I went out on a limb with one of my picks. I have the potential to move into 1st place. I was like 10 points behind 2 weeks ago.
Date: Sun Nov 11 13:31:52 2018
User: poptart
Message:Uuuugh!
Date: Sun Nov 11 14:40:54 2018
User: BuzzClik
Message:If you'd been out of town for a decade or so and tuned in the Pats game, you'd be convinced that NE cannot play football at all.
We'll see if they get their act together after halftime. Prolly....
Date: Sun Nov 11 14:42:37 2018
User: poptart
Message:It's not the team of recent years.
Date: Sun Nov 11 14:44:17 2018
User: poptart
Message:Jets are getting kiiiilled!
Date: Sun Nov 11 15:46:09 2018
User: poptart
Message:Dammit. The underdog I picked is not looking good. Boo!
And TEN is owning the entire pats team.
Date: Sun Nov 11 16:00:17 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I'll sell Edleman back to you for a fair price - and throw in Gronk and Brady, too, at no extra charge.
Post follow-up