Subject: Statistical anomaly in baseball
Date: Mon Jun 15 21:49:24 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Watching the Pirates-White Sox game a few minutes ago, I noticed an interesting graphic. During the past 19 games, the Pirates and Cardinals have exactly matched their wins and losses. They even matched win and loss streaks. Even when the Cards didn't play, the Buccos won, and then when the Buccos had a day off, the Cards matched that win.
(The Buccos just can't close that 6 game gap!) You statisticians can tell me, but I would liken it to calling heads-or-tails and getting it right 19 straight times. The odds have to be in the high millions-to-one.
Date: Mon Jun 15 22:55:32 2015
User: firenze
Message:The win/lose is not a 50/50 with these two teams who win more than they lose. Therefore, calling heads or tails is not an accurate description of the odds. If I could get an even bet on St. Louis, I certainly would take the win position every time.
Date: Mon Jun 15 23:56:13 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Not whether either team would win or lose (obviously, at present, the odds are either or both would win on any given day. Rather, whether they would win or lose together on the same day.
If I called heads and it came up heads, that would be a win for me. Same if I called tails and tails came up.
If I called that both the Bucs and Cards would win, that would be a win for me. If I called that they would both lose, that would be a win for me. If called a combination of correctly predicted Cards and Bucs wins/losses, 19 straight times, I would see those odds as astronomical. Very similar to 19 straight called heads/tails.
Date: Tue Jun 16 00:08:38 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:On second thought, I agree that the odds at present are that both teams would win more than they lose during that 19-game streak. (Current records are: Cards .667, Bucs .571) So, the odds should be something less than a random occurrence like heads-tails. (If they were both .500 teams, it would be pretty close to even odds, or 19 coin flips.) But the odds would still be very high!
I don't recall any two teams going for such a stretch with perfectly matched records. It may have never occurred before. Actually, the odds are pretty high against two teams in the same division, other than teams in different divisions or conferences, would have that anomaly.
Date: Tue Jun 16 03:57:25 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:Hmmmmm.......
Well, first off, are you sure about what you're saying? I checked a couple of sources, and as of right now, the Cards have won their last 4 and the Buccos their last 5. I'm not *sure* that that negates what you're saying, as there could be a staggered start, or something.
And of course firenze was right that it's not a 50/50 proposition.
But also, since there are 30 major league teams now (I had to look it up, as I don't pay too much attention these days/years), and thus there are around 435 or so "pairs" of teams in which some matching streaks could exist. So such a thing is 435 (or so - maybe 434?) more likely than you may think. I arrived at the 435 by the mental exercise of summing 29 --->1, but simplifying by averaging that to be 14.5, and multiplying by 30. [Just a very quick and dirty calculation; might not have thought it through perfectly....]
All *that* said.....
.667 X .571 = .381 (rounded) (that's the odds of both winning any particular pair of games, using their current success rate)
.333 X .429 = .143 (rounded) (that's the odds of both losing, as per above)
.381 + .143 = .524 So if I've (very quickly) thought this through correctly, that's the odds of them matching each other, *per game*. Then one would just take that to the 19th power, which = .00000465.
Then.....multiply by 435 as there are ~435 possible combinations of teams. Final "answer" = .0020, or about 2 chances in a thousand. BUT.....there are somewhere on the order of 143 different 19-game streaks per season (162-19), so within one given season, that becomes .289.
Thus, for all the teams in major league baseball, there is about a 29% chance that *some* combination of two teams will have that occur in any given year. Whew! It's nearly 4 AM, and I did that all quickly and not using any paper to set it up, so there could *easily* be a logic or math error in there.
Date: Tue Jun 16 09:06:56 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:The Bucs played yesterday and won. According to the NL results, the Cards didn't play, so if the Cards win again the next time the Bucs have a day off, then the streak would not be interrupted. That should account for the 5-4 win disparity.
The odds would jump again for two teams in the same division, and actually in a race at the top of that division, as in the NL Central. (WHEN will the Cards ever lose a few?)
The obvious answer is when the Bucs do, too. The Bucs will probably finish the season 6 games behind...
Date: Tue Jun 16 09:40:19 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:Cardinals beat the Twins last night 3-2.
Date: Tue Jun 16 11:11:07 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Ooops! My bad. For some reason my Google result came up with June 14 results. Had I only noticed the 1-0 Bucs-Phillies result... The streak continues!. In any other division, the Buccos would be outright leaders of a very close challenger. But behind those D**n Cards? Nada.
The last five games, the Bucs pitchers threw 4 shutouts, including 11 innings and 13 innings. Lowered their ERA to a sparkling 2.79. Second in the Majors! (Behind, once again, the Cards pitching staff...)
As an aside, the 13-inning shutout was the first time since 1914 that a game was won in the 13th by a score of 1-0. (12 scoreless innings by both sides, and 13 by the visitors.)
The Pirates have struggled at the bat of late, winning close low-scoring games over the Phillies. needing the shutouts to win in most cases. (Last night was an exception, 11-0 over the White Sox.) But I doubt Stanley Cup Champion--Again--Chi-town was doing much crying!
The Cards remain just visible on the horizon...
Date: Tue Jun 16 11:13:57 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:The Cards were rained out Sunday, so that explains the discrepancy. So, technically, the "streak" is still intact.
Go outside and watch the flowers grow..... LOL.
Date: Tue Jun 16 11:36:32 2015
User: dr.deadwing
Message:the one thing that will end the streak is head to head play.
Date: Tue Jun 16 12:21:57 2015
User: firenze
Message:Good point, deadwing.
Snow, the Pirates have 13 games left with the Cards. All they have to do is win 10 of them to erase that 6 game deficit and win the division.
Date: Tue Jun 16 13:35:54 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:That sounds easy enough. Just win 10 of 13 against the team with the best record in baseball, and possibly the strongest pitching staff.
Deadwing, that's true. In fact, it took lack of head-to-head play to make this streak possible. I suspect dead-to-head series' may have broken up other streaks in the past.
By the way, the Bucs have an interesting series going with the ChiSox. The four-game series ends the home stand with two games, and the next night begins a road trip with two games. These are not common, but neither are such series unusual.
The Bucs and Cards don't play each other again until July 9. 4 game series in St. Looey. That's a lot of games in between.
Date: Tue Jun 16 14:50:56 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Too bad it wasn't the Feds investigating Deflategate, and Spygate. Video evidence, for one, would likely not have been destroyed.
The irony here? The Saint Looey Rams were likely filmed during a walk-through, before the Super Bowl, which they lost even though favored over the Pats.
----------------------------------
"An unnamed source has claimed a New England Patriots employee secretly videotaped the St. Louis Rams' pregame walk-through the day before Super Bowl XXXVI, the Boston Herald reported Saturday.
According to the report, an unnamed source close to the team during the 2001 season said that following the Patriots' walk-through at the Louisiana Superdome, a member of the team's video staff stayed behind and taped the Rams' walk-through.
-- a non-contact, no-pads practice at reduced speed in which a team goes through its plays."
----------------------------------
So, now the Gateway Arch folks are on the other end of a cheating scandal...
Link: Source: Boston Herald
Date: Tue Jun 16 22:42:06 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:The Cards and Bucs both won again, tonight; the streak continues...
As for the Bucs, their pitching staff threw 5th shutout in six games. At present, 30 consecutive scoreless innings. Francisco Cervelli, who splits catching duties with Chris Stewart, has caught 51 scoreless innings. (Russell Who?)
And the Buccos STILL can't close the gap on the Cards!
Date: Wed Jun 17 07:06:04 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Cervelli needs to do what he's been doing for 500 more games to be honestly compared to Russell Martin.
Date: Wed Jun 17 07:19:17 2015
User: Klepp
Message:And re: St. Louis' (alleged) skullduggery, I hope they all burn--starting with that smarmy bow-tie wearer.
Date: Wed Jun 17 10:00:36 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Al quite true about Russell. Pittsburgh loves him, and the fans know the Bucs just couldn't keep him. But instead of the feared doom-and-gloom in the Catcher's spot, the Bucs just don't see Cervelli's and Stewart's bats as a weakness this year. Runners aren't going with impunity, either.
Understand, the Bucs went from Rod Barajas and crew to Martin, which was like dawn on the horizon. Watching Barajas bat was an exercise in painful futility, and his throws to second were no better. Just glad now that we don't have a Barajas, and in fact there is little drop-off this year from the Martin time in the Burgh.
Date: Thu Jun 18 12:57:49 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:In this stare-down contest, somebody finally blinked. While the Buccos lost their shutout streaks, the Cards finally lost a game. Only 5 behind! woo-hoo. (Understated, because the baseball gods can change fortunes at any time.)
Date: Thu Jun 18 13:50:29 2015
User: firenze
Message:Baseball has no gods, with the possible exception of Paul Goldschmidt.
Date: Thu Jun 18 14:10:10 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:And although it was only a question of when, the "Snowguy jinx" is now established.
Date: Tue Jul 7 16:39:52 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Not a "statistical anomaly" but it is pretty interesting--and frustration too, of course. As of today, the Pirates' record would lead every division in Major League Baseball, except for one.. the division where they trail the dominant Redbirds by 6 games. Looks like another one-and-done wildcard game and road playoffs if they manage to prevail in that game!
Link: MLB Standings as of July 7.
Date: Tue Jul 7 21:13:09 2015
User: firenze
Message:If you are the Pirates, you can whine about it or do something about it. I sure they don't take after their fans in Avella.
Date: Tue Jul 7 21:59:21 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Cole had better pitch that wild-card game, not Burnett--regardless stats.
Date: Wed Jul 8 00:23:18 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Not whine, ma'am. Just fact.
Date: Fri Jul 10 09:50:36 2015
User: lambchop
Message:When you compare the starting pitcher's eras between the bucs and cards; the top 2 pitchers for either team are close with pitt. having a slight advantage. the next 2 are significantly different with big edge to Pitt. However the cards ability to group hits and/or manufacture runs is the biggest difference in these teams
Date: Fri Jul 10 10:02:34 2015
User: firenze
Message:A. J. Burnett will find some reason to fail. The man is a head case. Under pressure, jello comes to mind.
Date: Fri Jul 10 11:05:06 2015
User: lambchop
Message:The bucs don't have even close to the mindset of st. l with the exception of Mccutcheon whom I think should have multiple mvp's by now except for the bunch of ahhh uhhhh losers? he plays with
Date: Sat Jul 11 20:02:11 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Mark Reynolds would hit .230--if he were given four strikes every AB.
Date: Sun Jul 12 09:54:39 2015
User: lambchop
Message:yet with all our analysis pitt. has won 2 in a row????
Date: Mon Jul 13 01:07:03 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Three in a row. And Burnett hit a homer. What a hoser.
Date: Mon Jul 13 10:48:42 2015
User: lambchop
Message:Cardinal fans are ready for the all star break to regroup!!!
Date: Thu Sep 10 23:00:50 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:lambchop:
"The bucs don't have even close to the mindset of st. l with the exception of Mccutcheon whom I think should have multiple mvp's by now except for the bunch of ahhh uhhhh losers? he plays with"
I have always liked Andrew McCutchen, and saw him as a front-line player--the cornerstone of the Pirates for years now, but something else was recently reported: Over his first 1000 games, he matches up really well with both Barry Bonds as a Pirate and Roberto Clemente during their respective first 1000's.
(By the way, the three-team race continues...)
Link: MLB dot com on Andrew
Date: Fri Sep 11 01:12:34 2015
User: Dr.Bombay
Message:Comparing McCutchen to the roid-free version of Barroid Bonds is fair but Clemente? Roberto played in an era where only five guys hit north of .300. I'm guessing if you went to those advanced stats, the gap is wide.
Date: Fri Sep 11 11:01:51 2015
User: lambchop
Message:Cards are hurting me right now. I am afraid their tenuous grip on 1st and I sure do not want to face Jake Arrietta in a 1 game playoff
Date: Fri Sep 11 12:46:56 2015
User: firenze
Message:Good points, Dr.Bombay.
I do like the Barroid Bonds. It might just make a good nick.
Date: Sat Sep 12 15:48:57 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Arrieta's over/unders in the NL Wild Card Game:
IP 7-2/3
H 5-1/2
R 1-1/2
ER 1
PIT had better take as many pitches as possible vs. Arrieta, because (let's be honest) Cole won't keep CHC's offense under comparable wraps, with PIT's offensive hopes lying fully on beating CHC's (average) pen.
Good luck PIT, you're going to need it.
(I hate CHC, btw.)
Date: Sat Sep 12 22:53:58 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:How about this scenario? PIT or CH Cubs wins division. St L goes on the road as #3 in WC Game... :)
Date: Mon Sep 14 09:33:50 2015
User: lambchop
Message:Like I stated earlier St. Louis does not want any part of Arietta
Date: Mon Sep 14 12:00:35 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Nobody does, especially in a one-game wildcard. In a series? You can work around him. But the Cubs would have to give him a rest after winning a wildcard game, benefiting their next opponent.
Date: Mon Sep 14 16:15:19 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Let's hope Arrieta can't become as stout as Bumgarner.
If so, we could see him do a Randy Johnson à la 2001, or a C.C. Sabathia à la 2008.
Date: Tue Sep 15 12:26:14 2015
User: lambchop
Message:Todays games between bucs and cubs could be a vital determining point in the race
Date: Tue Sep 15 13:04:26 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:4 games? They could potentially shovel dirt onto the Cubs' playoff hopes body, or instead close the gap, way close, and perhaps make the Buccos question themselves. Whoever takes 3 of 4 would gain a couple games on the other. A split would make the Cards really happy, 4 more games gone in the season, although 3-1 Cubs would also make please St L.
A lot also depends on what happens in Milwaukee.
Date: Wed Sep 16 09:23:39 2015
User: lambchop
Message:No real help or hurt for anyone after yesterdays split
Date: Wed Sep 16 09:41:02 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:The Cubs are 7.5 games up on the Giants for the second wildcard spot. It's real early to start talking about "shoveling dirt" on playoff hopes.
Date: Wed Sep 16 10:32:38 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Ooops! I meant, shoveling dirt on the Cubs' Division winning chances! They are pretty safe for the Wild Card Game. At present, the only real question is whether the Bucs or Cubs could catch the Cards. If the Cubs lose even one more of this series, their chances for the Division crown would be in even more jeopardy.
But as for yesterday's results? A split where both teams fell a half-game further behind while the remaining number of games in the season has been reduced by two was a win for the Cards. If the Cubs could sweep the remaining two games of this series, they could create a logjam far enough back of the Cards, with two more games gone, that the Cards could almost start popping champagne corks, even if the Cards only took one of two in Milwaukee.
Frankly, it's looking good for the Cards these days, unless the Pirates can somehow take two from the Cubs.
Date: Wed Sep 16 12:19:27 2015
User: lambchop
Message:I agree with you 100% snow guy
Date: Wed Sep 16 23:03:14 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:11th inning. This game is INTENSE!
Date: Wed Sep 16 23:04:10 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Okay, now 12th inning. Damn intense.
Date: Wed Sep 16 23:05:57 2015
User: firenze
Message:Chill, Snow. It's just a game.
Unless you have a lot of money on it, of course.
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