Subject: Statistical anomaly in baseball
Date: Mon Sep 28 14:03:23 2015
User: firenzes_mother
Message:My boy doesn't seem to understand that extra games mean extra money.
Date: Mon Sep 28 18:38:52 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:That would have the happy effect of the winner taking a full and relatively rested pitching staff to the Divisional Series.
Date: Mon Sep 28 23:02:57 2015
User: firenze
Message:3-0
Ask not for whom the bell tolls. . . . . . . .
Date: Mon Sep 28 23:46:36 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:The book was far superior to the movie, except I liked the monologue at the end of the movie.
But Rock Hudson didn,t say squat about stranding 16 runners...
Date: Mon Sep 28 23:49:27 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Whoops. I was thinking "A Farewell to Arms." My bad.
Date: Tue Sep 29 09:29:56 2015
User: lambchop
Message:Melancin=Melanoma for pirates
Date: Tue Sep 29 12:39:06 2015
User: Klepp
Message:How about pitching Arrieta up on the fists during his NL Wild Card at-bats?
It could help PIT chances--while inciting a small riot on PNC's turf, with a burgeoning, moderately-sized riot in Wrigleyville and environs.
Date: Tue Sep 29 19:41:51 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Anybody who crowds the plate, trying to take away the outside corner, deserves to be pitched to on their fists, including pitchers. The whole strike zone belongs to the guy pitching.
The Bucs won't lose today!
Date: Tue Sep 29 23:41:52 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Rizzo, particularly.
Date: Wed Sep 30 10:04:44 2015
User: lambchop
Message:bucs and cards whole seasons come down to todays double header
Date: Wed Sep 30 10:26:53 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:Sort of. The Cards are four games up with five to play. The Cards wrap up the season in Atlanta, Pitt hosts Cincy. The magic number for the Cards is two and six for the Bucs.
The Cards win just one today, and it's over.
Date: Wed Sep 30 10:53:05 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Never should have gotten to this point for the Bucs. Had they played and won on a par with the rest of their record, with the two bottom-feeders in their own division (less than a .500 record) they would have 100 wins in their rear-view mirror.
But they didn't, so they will have to play-in again. And likely watch the rest of the playoffs on tv.
Date: Wed Sep 30 12:25:43 2015
User: lambchop
Message:We'll see how the games turn out today and discuss it again tomorrow. I am about to go listen to the first game
Date: Wed Sep 30 12:33:43 2015
User: firenze
Message:Ever the optimist, Snowguy.
Date: Wed Sep 30 18:06:41 2015
User: Klepp
Message:...
Link: ...or...
Date: Thu Oct 1 09:42:43 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:Oh, my. Hadn't thought of John Candelaria for many years. If I recall correctly, he had his best years when Rich "Goose" Gossage was his closer.
Anyway, it will be Bucs vs Cubbies in Pittsburgh. Anything can happen in a one game series. It would be best for Snowy's mental well being if the Bucs win, but ... go Cubbies!
Date: Thu Oct 1 09:55:30 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:One doesn't see a pitcher bat five times in a game much (Candeleria, in only 7 innings), nor see a batter go 7/7 in a game very often (Stennett - and which tied the record for most hits in a 9-inning game, the only other example being by Wilbert Robinson in 1892). Further.......at that time 22-0 was a record number of runs in a shutout win (later matched by the Indians in 2004). As a(nother) side note, 2 of Stennett's hits were 1 each off the Reuschel brothers.
Date: Thu Oct 1 10:03:09 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:Candeleria, later pitching for the Twins, was part of another record in a game in 1990 - the only game ever in which two triple plays were turned by a team. He was on the mound for the second of the two, yet the Twins still lost the game 1-0 to the Red Sox.
Date: Fri Oct 2 07:47:57 2015
User: lambchop
Message:I know it is a long shot but being only 2 back the cubs could host the playin game if the bucs go in the tank. I am afraid my friend Tractor would do something drastic then.
Date: Fri Oct 2 15:14:03 2015
User: Klepp
Message:MIL will make sure PIT hosts; F*** CHC, and (let's be honest) its über-boorish fan base.
Date: Sat Oct 3 00:27:39 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:After the results of Friday night, it appears inevitable that the three best records in the Majors will be held by NL Central teams. I haven't seen yet where that kind of occurrence has ever been accomplished. The Cubs could also end up just one win shy of joining the Cards and the Bucs in the 2015 season .600 records club. Phenomenal.
Date: Sat Oct 3 11:44:31 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:According to one source, this has never before happened, during the modern 3-division era. The best previously, were three division teams in the top 4.
* 1978 AL East: No. 1 Yankees (100-63), No. 2 Red Sox (99-64), No. 4 Brewers (93-69)
* 1983 AL East: No. 2 Orioles (98-64), No. 3 Tigers (92-70), No. 4 Yankees (91-71)
Link: Fox Sports article
Date: Sat Oct 3 12:21:13 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:I was wondering about ways that, in the future, the wild-card play-in might be eliminated. The only way I can think of is to just start the playoffs immediately.
(1) Have three division winners and the first wild card.
(2) Increase the number of teams, as in Hockey.
To do that would increase the total number of teams to eight (fewer would be unbalanced.) That would continue playoff placement excitement during the regular season in more cities every year, and create more actual playoff excitement with more teams/cities involved. However, adjustments would have to be made, because the season and post-season are so ridiculously long already, especially with baseball being a "warm weather sport" but going deep into autumn. Adding a round would not be advisable, at the current series lengths.
Some possibilities to adjust include reducing first-round (division) series to 3 games instead of five, and/or reducing the second round (NL and AL) championship series to 5 games from seven. (The historic seven game World Series is likely impregnable at 7 games.)
Shortening the regular season--say back to 154 games--which makes so much sense to so many people, would mean MLB giving up too much regular-season income, and that's likely not happening. A shorter season would make expanded playoffs easy.
Also, seeding might be more interesting, in that the powerful would be less likely to knock each other out while weaker teams advance.
(Just pondering.) Any comments?
Date: Sat Oct 3 12:27:13 2015
User: firenze
Message:In the American League, there is a possibility that three teams vying for the final wild card spot could wind up with the same record.
Date: Sat Oct 3 14:02:16 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:>>>Klepp: "F*** CHC, and (let's be honest) its über-boorish fan base."
I love the irony of that comment. People here are too clever for that to be anything but intentional.
=================================
Snowy, the season is so long now that lengthening the playoffs will ensure horrible weather creating havoc. Option 1 seems reasonable; the one-game play-in is barely better than a lottery.
Fir -- that would be fantastic. They'd have to create a playoff bracket for the play-in.... or complex tiebreaker scenarios.
Date: Sat Oct 3 14:20:51 2015
User: firenze
Message:If the Astros, Angels, and the Twins end in a tie...
Because the Angels will finish with the best record versus the other two teams, they get a choice. They can play two games, both at home versus the other two clubs, or they can play one on the road and let the other two duke it out first. Most pundits seem to agree, as do I, that Los Angeles would take the latter route and play just one game.
This means that (although there seems to be a bit of confusion about this) the Twins would play in Houston in the first game, since three-way tie scenarios default to the "three-way pool" - rather than the Twins hosting the Astros, as dictated by intradivisional records in the two-way scenario above.
Should Minnesota come out on top, they'd then host the Angels.
Date: Sat Oct 3 14:23:28 2015
User: firenze
Message:Sorry, I should have credited the above.
Link: Playoff Scenario
Date: Sat Oct 3 15:35:26 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:In my ponderings above, Buzz. I tried to keep the playoff scenarios within the present playoff time frame. That would necessitate trimming playoff series as I suggested, in order to increase the number of post-season participants and games. (The additional games in the expanded number of series would, of course, be played concurrently.) More games in roughly the same post-season time frame.
And in my scenarios, especially the eight teams per League, meaningful baseball would still be played even this week, instead of most teams just mentally packing their luggage and planning vacations. (In the AL, eight teams, not including the three that clinched the Divisional championships, are within 7 games of the top wildcard spot as of today.) Meaningful baseball in recent weeks for the players and their fans. Less "wait until next year."
As of today, in an eight team format, Cleveland would be claiming the fifth wildcard (overall eighth) spot. And three other teams are still in reach of the Indians.
More interesting baseball for their fans, instead of just wondering if their eliminated favorite teams will play spoiler. Expanded postseason within the same time frames.
Date: Sat Oct 3 15:54:03 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:I like the playoffs with 7 game series. Going the hockey route where only the pathetic teams don't make the playoffs, and hockey is still being played in June, is horrible. Add more teams? I get it, but yuck.
Date: Sat Oct 3 16:01:30 2015
User: Klepp
Message:I apologize to all CHC fans for above disrespect, I was the (drunken) boorish one.
(Brewers' life-long futility hurts me, almost viscerally.)
Date: Sat Oct 3 16:24:00 2015
User: firenze
Message:If you want drunken boorish types, just go to any NFL game.
Date: Sat Oct 3 18:18:13 2015
User: Klepp
Message:When was the last time Mat Latos earned his paycheck? 2012?
Date: Sun Oct 4 02:46:01 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:Back to anomalies............
There were more tonight, with the pitching performance of Max Scherzer. Boosted by mrbuck's coaching/training acumen, Scherzer threw his second no-hitter of the season, only the sixth pitcher to have ever done so. Each no-hitter lacked only one blemish, preventing him from becoming the first ever to throw 2 perfect games. The only blemish tonight was a throwing error by the third baseman in the sixth. After that, he whiffed 9 in a row (all swinging), before a pop-up to end the game. Those 9 Ks in a row brought him to 17, tying him with Ryan for the most strikeouts during a no-hitter.
Further, I believe it is the first time a pitcher has no-hit two playoff teams (Pirates and Mets) in the same year (with only 5 previous examples of 2 no-hitters in a season, I think that's accurate). I'm not sure that's the full anomalistic listing of this event, but that's all I know of. From multiple reports, after that error in the sixth, he was essentially unhittable.
Date: Sun Oct 4 11:20:13 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:Mets were no-hit twice this season (first time ever in Mets history). Not the momentum they were seeking for the playoffs.
Date: Sun Oct 4 23:55:36 2015
User: Klepp
Message:Only seven of 25 potential WS match-ups have been previously held:
LAD/NYY
STL/TEX
STL/KC
STL/NYY
PIT/NYY
CHC/NYY
NYM/NYY
...with HOU and TOR having never played any potential NL pennant winners in the WS.
Date: Mon Oct 5 10:02:43 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:It happened. The three best records in all of MLB reside at the top of the NL Central. In fact, the Cubs closed at within .001 of also having a .600 or better record. This has never happened before. The shame is that, after the first round of the Playoffs, only one of the top three will remain.
Link: CBS Sports
Date: Mon Oct 5 10:09:17 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:The schedule will proceed normally with no complex playoff to play-in.
Tuesday at 7 PM freecell time, it's Astros vs Yankees, both starting pitchers having lost on Sunday.
Wednesday at 7 PM, it's Cubbies vs Bucs, both having pitched on Sunday, but only Cole (Pitt) having lost.
Snowy is beyond caring, so he'll probably be taking his wife to dinner and a movie on Wednesday, their usual Date Night. He can read about the outcome here.... ;)
Date: Mon Oct 5 12:15:25 2015
User: firenze
Message:Snowy's wife would probably be very appreciative of a dinner on Wednesday.
She must be tired of the weeping by now.
Date: Mon Oct 5 12:29:50 2015
User: lambchop
Message:.console snowguy (Ha! Go Cubs-Go Cards)
Date: Mon Oct 5 13:08:39 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:"Go Cubs-Go Cards"
Sorry, lambchop. At least one of those two teams--Cubs and Cards, despite being two of the best three teams in the Majors--and possibly both of them them, will not participate in the second round. Guaranteed that two of the best three teams will not make it into the second round.
The least they should do is to seed playoff teams, either with the two worst records playing in, or at least seeding after the play-in game.
Date: Mon Oct 5 13:23:44 2015
User: firenze
Message:Has it crossed your mind that the reason the Cards, Bucs, and Cubs have such good records is that they played the Brewers and Reds a lot during the season? They also played Atlanta, Arizona, San Diego, Miami, and Philadelphia home and home. Not exactly the cream of the crop.
Date: Mon Oct 5 13:55:10 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:The Pirates, as one example, had its weakest showings against the NL Central, including the Reds and Brewers, who are this year's bottom-feeders. (34-42 record against the Central) Losing records against everybody in their own division. They instead feasted on NL East and West and AL food. (51-15 against the NL east and west this year.) And 13-7 against the AL.
Link: One source!
Date: Mon Oct 5 13:57:31 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Also, what you state might have been the case except that the NL Central division, as a whole including the bottom-feeders, sported the best overall record of all divisions this year.
Date: Mon Oct 5 15:28:16 2015
User: Klepp
Message:PIT would beat CHC, if they started Liriano.
Regardless of dude's last outing, he's on full rest (with no extra).
CHC's left-handed power (Rizzo, Montero, Coghlan, Schwarber) is more a threat than its right-handed power (Bryant, Soler, Russell, Fowler).
Liriano has faced CHC only once this season, and he shut them out in 7-2/3, while Cole's outings vs. CHC have been spotty.
I find it hard to believe Hurdle didn't labor over his choice of Cole.
Date: Tue Oct 6 08:10:47 2015
User: lambchop
Message:On a related note; If the Yankees were to win tonight and advance I wonder how the loss of Sabathia (to rehab ) will affect their chances. And yes I am aware only cubs OR cards will advance from nlds.
Date: Tue Oct 6 12:43:46 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:Your odds of that happening is about 0.67-0.33. Good odds, very good odds, but not exactly a lock.
Date: Wed Oct 7 01:02:53 2015
User: Kaos
Message:Snowguy wrote: "Sorry, lambchop. At least one of those two teams--Cubs and Cards, despite being two of the best three teams in the Majors--and possibly both of them them, will not participate in the second round. Guaranteed that two of the best three teams will not make it into the second round."
ELO ratings have Toronto #1 ( I agree), and Pitt #2 (skeptical). You can pick whoever you think is the best between Pirates, Cubs, and Cards for #2 and then KC is #3. Sorry, but AL has been kicking NL b*tt for two decades now so there is no way you can't have 2 or top 3 from the AL.
Date: Wed Oct 7 07:58:00 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:>>>Kaos: "Sorry, but AL has been kicking NL b*tt for two decades now so there is no way you can't have 2 or top 3 from the AL. "
With the exception, of course, of last year, and 2012, and 2011 and ten of the past 20 World Series. But, yeah -- half the time, the AL wins.
Date: Wed Oct 7 11:01:16 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:EL0 Ratings are not, imho, as indicative of accomplishment and ability for a team sport as records. It's on the field that the best teams tend to come to the fore, after 162 games. In a short series, a lesser team can win, but over the long haul, and 162 games is a REAL long haul, that's when the best teams reveal themselves.
ELo Ratings measure players against each other--in fact, it was developed to measure relative skills of chess players, to predict likely outcomes--which is all well and good, but baseball is a TEAM sport.
Of course, ELo ratings are now used "measure" relative skills of baseball players. But it won't be individual players taking the field in the post season. It will be teams. And 162 games of evidence tends to show that better/best teams tend to rise to the top.
It won't be McCutchen against Bryant or Trout or Bautista in the playoffs.
And basebal isn't chess.
Post follow-up