Subject: Statistical anomaly in baseball

Date: Wed Oct 7 13:02:36 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
Couldn't agree more, Snowy. A lot of these so-called "advanced analytics" are great fun for those with a penchant for modeling, data bases, and projections (e.g., fantasy sports participants), but the only real game is on the field. Cold analysis tells us that tonight's game will be a very low scoring pitcher's duel with odds favoring the Cubs. As of 11:30 EST tonight, the only data that will matter at all will be the final score.

Date: Wed Oct 7 13:31:26 2015
User: firenze
Message:
So, do the Cubs go to St. Louis or Los Angeles?

Date: Wed Oct 7 13:42:35 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
St. Louis ;)

Date: Wed Oct 7 13:51:48 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
And just in case you needed a distraction during these great playoff games, an Atlanta dj is dragging his knuckles through the dirt (see link below). I think Mendoza is doing a great job. John Kruk is a super, macho color guy, but not exactly cerebral. Mendoza offers great balance along with her insights. And then they brought in Chris Archer for a few innings. That kid was really, really good on the mic!

Link: Protruding forehead....

Date: Wed Oct 7 18:05:52 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:
"So, do the Cubs go to St. Louis or Los Angeles?" My guess is they go to Chicago.

Date: Wed Oct 7 18:14:18 2015
User: firenze
Message:
That's maybe true. You probably can't get a direct flight from Pittsburgh to St. Louis or Los Angeles unless you go through a major hub like Chicago.

Date: Wed Oct 7 23:20:18 2015
User: joeygray
Message:
That's just not baseball. Nobody ever proved nothin in a one game series. This whole double wildcard playin game has been antibaseball since day one and no more so than today.

Date: Wed Oct 7 23:55:31 2015
User: Klepp
Message:
PIT would have at least gotten the tying run to the plate more than once (past the second, like tonight) had Liriano started. And starting Rodriguez? PIT's bench has better choices...

Date: Thu Oct 8 00:01:23 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:
It being a one-game series, it worked out just about the way i nearly expected it to. And fir? Win or lose, the Cubs were going back to Chicago, just as I expected.

Date: Thu Oct 8 00:14:23 2015
User: Kaos
Message:
>>>Kaos: "Sorry, but AL has been kicking NL b*tt for two decades now so there is no way you can't have 2 or top 3 from the AL. " >>> BuzzClik: "With the exception, of course, of last year, and 2012, and 2011 and ten of the past 20 World Series. But, yeah -- half the time, the AL wins. " Math tells us you need 30+ samples to draw a reasonable conclusion so if you add in all-star games we have AL winning 21 of last 28; and inter-league play (AL also dominates) you get the true picture - AL has been better for a while. I blame (or applaud) SF for skewing the World Series records. They shouldn't have even won the NL pennant but The Freak (Lincecum), Posey, and the tall Freak (Baumgarner) seem to have come up with an extra gear when SF has won it all. Snowguy: I don't see player ELO ratings making sense for baseball since players don't compete head-to-head. But, for team they do. 538 sport has team ELO ratings which is what I was drawing from with Toronto #1 and Pirates #2. But, as many had thought, Arieta has pushed Cubbies past the Pirates.

Date: Thu Oct 8 07:47:19 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
The "two decades" concept was yours, not mine. But, for some odd reason, you want to include All Star games; your choice of 28 games was strange, until you look at the list of winners. You took it back to when the NL total domination of the All Star games ended. Push it back another 20 games, and the NL has a big edge. Of course, the All Star game is meaningless in this context, as are all the interleague games (in which the AL holds the slimmest edge of 2551 to 2292). We were discussing playoffs, and you changed the discussion to a much broader subject that fit your premise. Whatever. Can we get back to the playoffs? Go Cubbies. Nice win last night!

Date: Thu Oct 8 08:34:41 2015
User: lambchop
Message:
now the question is Will the Cubs continue their regular season mastery over the Cardinals

Date: Thu Oct 8 12:09:12 2015
User: firenzes_mother
Message:
Sounds like it was a good game. I missed it. The first Wednesday night of the month is when I clip my toenails and brush my tooth.

Date: Thu Oct 8 12:57:07 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:
It's still a bit of a shame that it was one-and-done. Liriano could very well have won the second game, and with JA Happ pitching lights-out since joining the team, the third game could also have been in reach. But really, the Bucs have only themselves to blame. They played tepid ball the first six weeks or so. Even .500 ball (wins) would have put them well ahead on the pack at the conclusion of the season, instead of trying to catch up to the Cards. Best wishes for the Cubs.

Date: Thu Oct 8 13:44:32 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
.thumbsup Well played, Snowy, and I agree. Now the Cubs go to St. Louis to battle their blood rivals. Seems fitting, but it's likely this series will determine who goes to the World Series.

Date: Thu Oct 8 14:39:06 2015
User: firenze
Message:
I wouldn't discount Greinke and Kershaw in a seven game series.

Date: Thu Oct 8 15:59:45 2015
User: Snowguy
Message:
Of course, last year the Wild Card Giants won it all. It could happen again.

Date: Wed Oct 14 09:14:25 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
As per CBSSports.com: "The Chicago Cubs have made postseason history in a positive way. That's something we don't often see, no? But it happened. In their 8-6 Game 3 victory over the Cardinals, the Cubs hit six home runs. That's a major-league record in the postseason. The previous record-holders were these teams with five. 1928 Yankees, 5 HR in Game 4 of the World Series 1984 Cubs, 5 HR in Game 1 of the NLCS 1989 Athletics, 5 HR in Game 3 of the World Series 2004 Cardinals, 5 HR in Game 1 of 2004 NLDS 2005 White Sox, 5 HR in Game 1 of ALDS

Date: Wed Oct 14 09:30:45 2015
User: firenze
Message:
The only real post season is the World Series. Everything before that is artificial fluff.

Date: Wed Oct 14 12:06:14 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
No kidding! And what's up with each player having his own glove that he totes on and off the field each inning? It makes far more sense and costs less money to simply have one glove for each position that is left on the field between innings. And whatever happened to the Eephus pitch?

Date: Wed Oct 14 12:25:07 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
All valid comments. Not to mention, having outfield fences in itself greatly inflates home run totals. Not to mention how lively the balls are here the last 95 years or so. Goodness gracious. Give me two 8-team leagues and 154 games, doubleheaders with one admission price, and send these high-falootin' Dodgers, Athletics, Braves, etc. back where they came from. Never did get to see Christy Mathewson or Chief Bender pitch, either, even "back when I was a boy".

Date: Wed Oct 14 12:44:40 2015
User: lambchop
Message:
That is some serious living in the past

Date: Wed Oct 14 13:43:45 2015
User: firenze
Message:
Hey, men were men, not highly paid sissyphatic china dolls when they get a boo-boo from a slide into second.

Date: Wed Oct 14 14:07:56 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Yeah - try explaining "injured reserve" to Ty Cobb. He'd get a big kick outta that one.

Date: Wed Oct 14 14:30:02 2015
User: FilthyMcNasty
Message:
Sissyphatic?

Date: Wed Oct 14 16:04:57 2015
User: firenze
Message:
I considered sissyphalic, but I thought that might get a rise out of you.

Date: Thu Oct 15 08:42:14 2015
User: FilthyMcNasty
Message:
Yes, you're your mother's son. I never cease to be amazed how she make even a simple discussion about baseball seem so nasty. Want to go trick-or-treating with us this Halloween? We're going as Gomez and Morticia Addams. You could be Cousin It.

Date: Thu Oct 15 13:45:32 2015
User: firenzes_mother
Message:
Let's think about this. Baseball involves a bat and a ball. . . . . .pitching and catching. . . . . .swing hitters. . . . .getting to first base. . . . .

Date: Thu Oct 15 22:22:50 2015
User: MikeC
Message:
And don't forget sliding in to home .......

Date: Thu Oct 22 11:02:47 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Cliff Pennington became the first position player to pitch in a post-season game. From the "National Post": "Although Pennington is the first position player to pitch in baseball’s post-season, he is not the first player to pitch in the playoffs then play in the post-season as a fielder later in his career. Babe Ruth pitched for the Boston Red Sox in the World Series in 1916 and 1918 before converting to an outfielder. He played in seven World Series with the New York Yankees. Pennington had never pitched in a professional game, but played the position throughout high school and college, developing a fastball, curveball and change-up." --------- Daniel Murphy's achievements: First to homer in six consecutive post-season games. Most home runs in a single post-season by a second baseman. Not a record, but only the second person (Gehrig was the first) to have a hit, an RBI, and a run scored in 7 consecutive post-season games. He has now hit as many home runs (7) in 9 post-season games as Hank Aaron and Willie Mays *combined* in 42 post-season games. There may be more, but that's all I'm aware of.

Date: Wed Oct 28 09:39:34 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Longest Game 1 in WS history. First inside-the-park HR in WS since 1929.

Date: Wed Oct 28 10:54:07 2015
User: 47JBD
Message:
Maybe Abby will play ice hockey next. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dULeJpGnKc As for last night ITP HR, my first thought was there must not have been many parks with fences in the 20's and those that did must have been way back from home plate.

Date: Wed Oct 28 13:02:35 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
The inside the park homerun was about as questionable a bit of scoring as you'll ever see. The outfielder was right there but never raised his glove to catch the ball. He tried to catch it with his back to home plate and the glove pointing down and thigh high. Was he assuming the ball would simply leap into his glove on its own accord? The ball then bounces off the fielder's foot, takes a hard left turn and rolls away from the fielders. By the time they get the ball to the cutoff man, no throw is made because the run is a given. That should have been a four-base error (equally rare).

Date: Wed Oct 28 13:52:22 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
I'm pretty certain all parks had fences by the '20s, and likely all had them well before then. I do know that in the "aughts" there were still some without.

Date: Wed Oct 28 13:54:23 2015
User: 47JBD
Message:
Possibly BC, but usually the ball has to hit the glove with reasonable effort to be called an error. Any ball not caught do to sun, lights, roof, etc. are always hits. I don't believe any MLB player uses #5 welding glasses. They really diminish the suns brightness. Can't wear them when driving since you can't see the color red.

Date: Wed Oct 28 14:00:22 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
Welding glasses at night would be a distinct disadvantage. But I agree. The lack of any attempt by the fielder to make a play on the ball means it probably can't be an error. (here's the link I forgot to attach previously)

Link: inside the part homer

Date: Wed Oct 28 14:31:18 2015
User: 47JBD
Message:
I only use mine during day games, especially when the sun is low in the morning or late afternoon. Nothing worse than trying to pick up a slow pitched softball with the sun behind the pitcher.

Date: Wed Oct 28 15:10:26 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
I was, at one point in my life, an "official scorekeeper" for baseball (not major leagues). After looking at that replay multiple times, I would have to score it a 4-base error. As a mild disclaimer, I was known as a moderately strict grader on the defense, perhaps because that was my strong suite. My perception is that the CF was perhaps afraid of a collision, but come on man, this is the WS. There is no way he shouldn't have made that play. The sun was down. LOL. I think a major league CF should make that play 95-97 times out of a 100. All that said, I *did* have to think about it, but not that much. I thought the error they gave Hosmer was closer to a hit (altho I agree 'error' is correct) than the "HR". My perception is that in my lifetime, hit/error scoring has become more lax (meaning more forgiving to the fielder).

Date: Sun Nov 1 20:35:45 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
After the Royals' comeback last night, that made 6 of them from at least a 2-run deficit in this post-season - a new record. Quite remarkable, even with game-inflation.

Date: Sun Nov 1 20:36:53 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
To clarify.....6 just by the Royals.

Date: Sun Nov 1 22:17:38 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
The hit by Volquez was the first ever by a Royals pitcher in the World Series (25 AB).

Date: Mon Nov 2 00:21:39 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Make that *7* come-from-2-or-more-runs-down by the soon-to-be-champion Royals. Pretty incredible.

Date: Mon Nov 2 07:41:30 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
The Mets had better starting pitching (just as the Giants did last time round). Once the Royals got the starters off the mound, they could win.

Date: Mon Nov 2 10:40:05 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Yep. Also..... Familia's 3 blown saves is a record for one World Series. Amazing (double entendre intended) as it happened in only a 5-game series. But he did come in in tough situations. Christian Colon's game-winning RBI is the first ever by a batter in his first AB in a World Series. [I can't find confirmation of that today, but I'm quite sure I saw it flashed on the screen during the game.] Only the second W.S. ever to have two 12+ inning games, the other being in 1924. Second W.S. ever to have multiple leadoff HRs in games; the other being in 1969. (Assuming Escobar's inside-the-park job was *really* a HR.) Remarkably, this was the first W.S. in which both teams were expansion teams. That's an unexpected note. Mets and K.C. will meet in K.C. on opening day 2016, the first time that the two teams in the W.S. meet on opening day. (Which isn't terribly shocking considering that inter-league play is a recent occurrence.)

Date: Mon Nov 2 11:09:18 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
TN: "Familia's 3 blown saves is a record for one World Series. Amazing (double entendre intended) as it happened in only a 5-game series. But he did come in in tough situations." The Mets' defense should get an assist on these blown saves. And at least one bizarre base running gaffe.

Date: Mon Nov 2 11:11:58 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Absolutely.

Date: Tue Nov 3 10:16:30 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
As part of their stunning 7 comebacks of 2 runs or more in the post-season, 3 of them were in the W.S. - yet another first. In this post-season, they outscored their opponents in innings 7 on by 51-11. Wowser.

Date: Tue Nov 3 10:23:52 2015
User: BuzzClik
Message:
Such an oddity. It seems the Royals destroyed relief pitching but struggled against the top starters. Lots of folks second-guessed Collins's decision to send Harvey back to the mound in the 9th, but, given the stats TN just gave us, I think he knew exactly what he was doing. If Harvey could have pulled a Bumgarner, all would have been well.

Date: Tue Nov 3 10:49:47 2015
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Well.....that kind of thought may have been in his mind, but he publicly stated that he "trusted his players", meaning in this particular case, when Harvey adamantly refused to come out of the game, he "trusted" him enough to believe he would finish the job. And who knows, if Duda's throw had been even close to accurate, we wouldn't be having this discussion. (And we may have been discussing game 6 by now.) In so many of these cases, there's really no "right" or "wrong" decision - it's just a manager playing instinct, odds, feelings, etc. - which is a lot of what makes it interesting and fun to watch, and then dissect afterwards. As an aside, I really enjoyed Harold Reynolds's in-game analyses throughout. Great baseball mind.

Date: Thu Nov 5 00:01:07 2015
User: Klepp
Message:
It would have been a great series but for the Mets' often sketchy defense (particularly d'Arnaud's).