All site revenue goes to charity
Subject: What are the odds???
Date: Sun May 15 19:30:01 2016
User: Raymone-of-Bayonne
Message:
What are the odds of drawing the same deal three times in a row? At least I solved faster each time!(grin)
User: Raymone-of-Bayonne
Message:
What are the odds of drawing the same deal three times in a row? At least I solved faster each time!(grin)
Date: Sun May 15 19:43:12 2016
User: ix
Message:
i believe there are 32768 possible deals under the current deal algorithm, which would mean the odds of the same game three times in a row are one in 32768 cubed or one in 3.5184372e+13, which is staggering. beyond staggering that someone had it happen, noticed it, and posted about it.
User: ix
Message:
i believe there are 32768 possible deals under the current deal algorithm, which would mean the odds of the same game three times in a row are one in 32768 cubed or one in 3.5184372e+13, which is staggering. beyond staggering that someone had it happen, noticed it, and posted about it.
Date: Sun May 15 19:49:08 2016
User: ix
Message:
i'm guessing that the fact there are levels here, so that it couldn't have happened if you were close to changing levels, makes it even more incredible. thanks for the post!!
User: ix
Message:
i'm guessing that the fact there are levels here, so that it couldn't have happened if you were close to changing levels, makes it even more incredible. thanks for the post!!
Date: Sun May 15 20:09:07 2016
User: Punster
Message:
Is that like a deja vue freecell moment ????? :-)
User: Punster
Message:
Is that like a deja vue freecell moment ????? :-)
Date: Sun May 15 20:43:43 2016
User: ix
Message:
i should have posted 1 in 35,184,372,088,832 instead of copying the scientific notation that the calculator put out.
User: ix
Message:
i should have posted 1 in 35,184,372,088,832 instead of copying the scientific notation that the calculator put out.
Date: Sun May 15 22:44:45 2016
User: jamesblackburn-lynch
Message:
Isn't it just squared, not cubed? The first time the game was gotten wasn't really a 1 in 30000 thing because it could have been any game. The impressive thing is the second time was the same game as that one. That's a 1 in 30000 event. And the third time was another one of those. Now if a player predicted they were going to get a certain game three times in a row it would be cubed...but since the game that was three-peated was just a random one, I think the probability is just squared. Still a big number but one 30000th as large... James
User: jamesblackburn-lynch
Message:
Isn't it just squared, not cubed? The first time the game was gotten wasn't really a 1 in 30000 thing because it could have been any game. The impressive thing is the second time was the same game as that one. That's a 1 in 30000 event. And the third time was another one of those. Now if a player predicted they were going to get a certain game three times in a row it would be cubed...but since the game that was three-peated was just a random one, I think the probability is just squared. Still a big number but one 30000th as large... James
Date: Sun May 15 23:41:36 2016
User: CubicSprock
Message:
you are correct james, which makes it 1 in 900,000,000. And given almost 500 million games have been played, that gives an expected value of 0.56 occurrences in the history of this site.* * Of course this assumes those games were all random, which is probably close enough for the point we want to make that given how long the site has been around it isn't super shocking that it happened.
User: CubicSprock
Message:
you are correct james, which makes it 1 in 900,000,000. And given almost 500 million games have been played, that gives an expected value of 0.56 occurrences in the history of this site.* * Of course this assumes those games were all random, which is probably close enough for the point we want to make that given how long the site has been around it isn't super shocking that it happened.
Date: Mon May 16 00:02:31 2016
User: Kaos
Message:
Ah, but various viral infections can easily put your computer into a continuous state of deja vu all over again.
User: Kaos
Message:
Ah, but various viral infections can easily put your computer into a continuous state of deja vu all over again.
Date: Mon May 16 01:07:16 2016
User: ix
Message:
it later dawned on me that my math was bogus, but wouldn't it be 32768^2 or 1 in 1,073,741,824? i assume you were just rounding, but one in a billion does have a nice sound.
User: ix
Message:
it later dawned on me that my math was bogus, but wouldn't it be 32768^2 or 1 in 1,073,741,824? i assume you were just rounding, but one in a billion does have a nice sound.
Date: Mon May 16 16:10:55 2016
User: TNmountainman
Message:
I've always had this nagging suspicion that there's something more going on with duplicate deals. I just did a *very* rough estimation of the number of games I've played on this site, using my various nicks. Probably in the neighborhood of 50-60,000. And yet I've documented several instances of being dealt consecutive games. Theoretically, it would have happened about 1.5 times in my "career", but I'd guess it's happened to me, oh, 6 to 8 times. That's just one isolated data point, I know, and purely anecdotal, but there have been other 'anomalies' that just make me wonder sometimes if the deal seeding is always purely random. I'm just sayin'..... But anyway that ya look at it, 3 in a row is astounding. What *other* 3-in-a-row does that remind anyone of? Oh yeah, Sir Pape's (supposed??) feat in 4x4. (No one else has been able to achieve even 2!) (And I'm not saying it wasn't authentic - just that there was much doubt at the time.)
User: TNmountainman
Message:
I've always had this nagging suspicion that there's something more going on with duplicate deals. I just did a *very* rough estimation of the number of games I've played on this site, using my various nicks. Probably in the neighborhood of 50-60,000. And yet I've documented several instances of being dealt consecutive games. Theoretically, it would have happened about 1.5 times in my "career", but I'd guess it's happened to me, oh, 6 to 8 times. That's just one isolated data point, I know, and purely anecdotal, but there have been other 'anomalies' that just make me wonder sometimes if the deal seeding is always purely random. I'm just sayin'..... But anyway that ya look at it, 3 in a row is astounding. What *other* 3-in-a-row does that remind anyone of? Oh yeah, Sir Pape's (supposed??) feat in 4x4. (No one else has been able to achieve even 2!) (And I'm not saying it wasn't authentic - just that there was much doubt at the time.)
Date: Mon Mar 6 01:08:47 2023
User: Uberman
Message:
TN, your old friend has returned to the wildlands of 4x4 after a long absence. Interestingly, eight winnables came and went before registering one on the scoreboard. I counted how many games he has played since his comeback, and it is *checks notes*......a lot.
User: Uberman
Message:
TN, your old friend has returned to the wildlands of 4x4 after a long absence. Interestingly, eight winnables came and went before registering one on the scoreboard. I counted how many games he has played since his comeback, and it is *checks notes*......a lot.
Date: Mon Mar 6 03:51:16 2023
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ah, he who was knighted once upon a time......... Interesting. I notice that there are a lot of 5-10-20-second games. I guess that's not surprising, and also, the ones that *are* winnable, he's spending a bit more time on them - which also is not surprising, I suppose. Wonder if he's codified a specific algorithm, or "more susceptible" criteria. I guess it's kinda obvious which ones have very little chances of being taken down. But, things about looking at that data that *are* surprising: 1. How many of them have been played 5 times or more. 2. That at least two of them had been won twice. Surely that variant isn't included in any tournaments, is it, even climate 1?
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ah, he who was knighted once upon a time......... Interesting. I notice that there are a lot of 5-10-20-second games. I guess that's not surprising, and also, the ones that *are* winnable, he's spending a bit more time on them - which also is not surprising, I suppose. Wonder if he's codified a specific algorithm, or "more susceptible" criteria. I guess it's kinda obvious which ones have very little chances of being taken down. But, things about looking at that data that *are* surprising: 1. How many of them have been played 5 times or more. 2. That at least two of them had been won twice. Surely that variant isn't included in any tournaments, is it, even climate 1?
Date: Mon Mar 6 05:19:10 2023
User: roo
Message:
With 4x4 it's obvious straight away if the game cannot be won, usually by looking where the aces are. Two or more in the top half and forget it. Most games are therefore under about 40 seconds. No. it's not in any tournaments, even at level zero!
User: roo
Message:
With 4x4 it's obvious straight away if the game cannot be won, usually by looking where the aces are. Two or more in the top half and forget it. Most games are therefore under about 40 seconds. No. it's not in any tournaments, even at level zero!
Post follow-up