Subject: Overrated Underated
Date: Tue May 16 08:02:54 2023
User: BuzzClik
Message:This was the impression I was getting early on: the issue seems to be whether the wave was a tsunami or not.
Let's get an expert definition: "A tsunami is a series of extremely long waves caused by a large and sudden displacement of the ocean, usually the result of an earthquake below or near the ocean floor. This force creates waves that radiate outward in all directions away from their source, sometimes crossing entire ocean basins. Unlike wind-driven waves, which only travel through the topmost layer of the ocean, tsunamis move through the entire water column, from the ocean floor to the ocean surface.
"Most tsunamis are caused by earthquakes on converging tectonic plate boundaries. According to the Global Historical Tsunami Database, since 1900, over 80% of likely tsunamis were generated by earthquakes. However, tsunamis can also be caused by landslides, volcanic activity, certain types of weather, and—possibly—near-earth objects (e.g., asteroids, comets) colliding with or exploding above the ocean."
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/ocean-coasts/tsunamis
By this definition, the Hunga Tonga wave was a tsunami, as was wave generated by the 1958 landslide in Lituya Bay, Alaska.
Earthquakes beneath the surface of the ocean are more likely to produce the massive, far-reaching waves Kaos has discussed. Volcanoes tend to be much more localized and the resulting waves may be less impactful. I think we're simply in a discussion that would parallel comparisons of F1 vs F5 tornadoes. The F1 merely knocked over my mailbox whereas an F5 has the potential to level an entire town. Both are tornadoes nonetheless.
It's not a matter of science. It's semantics.
Date: Tue May 16 08:43:24 2023
User: outskirts
Message:Mansplaining 101
😆
Date: Tue May 16 14:38:38 2023
User: TNmountainman
Message:Buzz, instead of this comparing an F1 to an F5..........I think it's more like comparing an F4 or F5 in the backwoods of Manitoba, or the Grasslands of Northeastern NM maybe, where very little (human) damage can occur, vs. an F4 or F5 smashing into towns in Mississippi or Arkansas, for example. By AAAALLLL accounts, other than Kaos's.......this was a very big deal (and was a legitimate "tsunami"). IF......IF............one wants to include "casualties and death" into one's own definition of a tsunami, then perhaps one could call this an F1, but that'd be stretching the definitional limits, I'd say.
Date: Tue May 16 18:16:50 2023
User: outskirts
Message:Overrated: freecell discussion
Underrated: time on this planet
Date: Tue May 16 22:56:19 2023
User: Kaos
Message:Interesting note about the Global Historical Tsunami Database. Seems like 20% is a good percentage for the average number of times something is mislabeled. I’d argue only earthquakes and meteors could generate tsunamis…
Date: Wed May 17 02:12:53 2023
User: Kaos
Message:My final comments on Hunga Tonga and the Nova episode.
First, some background: As noted before, I grew up and live in the Seattle metropolitan area so I’m personally familiar with earthquakes. But, I’m also personally familiar with tsunamis. My grandparents retired to the Oregon coast and we were visiting them during spring break in 1964 when the Good Friday earthquake in Alaska generated a huge tsunami that inundated the West Coast. We received a knock on the door sometime after midnight (pre internet or any other form of early warning system) so my parents bundled us up and we drove to higher ground. They couldn’t convince our grandparents to leave but the resulting tsunami only flooded their cabin to about 20 inches (~.5 m) so they survived. But, there were many others up and down the west coast who were not so lucky. It’s hard to forget something like that from your early childhood.
Next, to TNM: to paraphrase Jack Nicholson, you make me want to be a better scientist. Here’s how my gut reaction plays out in fact.
You can go to the California department of geological science and see that the tsunami from the 2011 earthquake in Japan resulted in a 2.47 m amplitude wave in Crescent City while the Hunga Tonga earthquake from last year resulted in a .99 m amplitude wave in Crescent City. The origin of the earthquake in Japan is about 8k miles away from Crescent City while the origin from Hunga Tonga is about 5k miles away. Since the equations for the energy involved are proportional to the squares of the distance (or amplitude), my conclusion is that the tsunami from Japan was over 15.3x stronger than that from HT. Then, factor in that the Nova episode described the HT tsunami as 19 m while the Japanese tsunami is described as 9m and we can conclude that the exaggeration was around 100x as a no-brainer. (FWIW, I’m guessing the truth is closer to 1000x than 100x but the facts for 100x are hard to refute.)
Now, doing all of this research I can see that there is lots of fascinating information about the HT eruption that I missed out on (because the Nova special grossly overstated some of their “facts”). This really discredits scientists when you want to sanely discuss topics such as feeding the planet or climate change. Exaggerate once to this degree and your credibility goes out the door with me. They had a good story but they (grossly) oversold it.
Date: Wed May 17 04:18:46 2023
User: TNmountainman
Message:I don't want to nit-pik further; I really don't. We'll just never agree. And I have no dog in this fight. I only think legitimate, documented scientific research that's been checked, evaluated, and validated by peers should be respected. Doesn't mean it's foolproof - but it's the best we can do with the *copious* data available. The weight of the evidence and scientific opinion is counter to your own.
But I do want to point out that no way is Tonga closer to Cresent City, CA or Oregon than Japan is. Without doing any calculation(s).........that's just not possible. They may be somewhat close, but Tonga is almost certainly farther.
And, *one more time*...........you're comparing a tsunami from an underwater earthquake to one (yes) from a volcanic explosion. Completely different genesis. Different physics and wave propagation dynamics.
Might I suggest you contact Garvin (shouldn't be too hard to do), and get his reaction to your beliefs. I'd be interested to hear his response.
[edit/addendum: james.b.garvin@nasa.gov]
Date: Wed May 17 07:38:01 2023
User: BuzzClik
Message:Distances (from Google Earth):
Hunga Tonga to Crescent City: 5374 miles
Fukushima Daiiki to Crescent City: 4788 miles
Date: Wed May 17 11:58:58 2023
User: TNmountainman
Message:Thank you. Had to be like that.
Reminds me of a post just above, if i may quote........"Exaggerate once to this degree and your credibility goes out the door with me." But I really don't think like that - at least not in this case. I think he just a simple mistake.
Post follow-up