Subject: New game, just for chuckles?
Date: Fri Aug 24 22:39:18 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Nothing complicated. Just pick a winner in every game each week of the regular NFL season. Then, whoever had the most winds at the end of the season, wins. Not picking in a week costs you. Ane let each person keep track of his/her own numbers (Although anybody can do it as well. Just pick each game before it is played.
A suitable prize will be offered to the winner, a prize suitable for gloating and lording it over the loooo - sers.
Date: Sat Aug 25 09:07:32 2018
User: poptart
Message:Not doing on a Pick'Em site?
I'm game....
Date: Sat Aug 25 10:02:15 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I am open to ideas. The Pick'em again sounds interesting. The above was just the first idea that had popped into my head.
Date: Sat Sep 1 09:18:55 2018
User: poptart
Message:Doesn't look like we have any takers!
Date: Sat Sep 1 17:24:31 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I'd probly pitch in, as time allows. Hi, pop!
Date: Sat Sep 1 20:31:14 2018
User: poptart
Message:Hey there, TN!
Date: Thu Sep 6 09:39:38 2018
User: poptart
Message:Looks like just the three of us... still game?
Date: Thu Sep 6 09:54:09 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I don't wanna be roped in to picking a winner in EVERY NFL game. Too much of a time sink for that. Alternatively, what we did last year was interesting and fun - yet those who were out early had to wait around for the rest of us to lose without any ability to play again, if you remember what I mean. Some sort of hybridized version would suit me. Open to ideas...…..
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:01:31 2018
User: poptart
Message:tell me what you really think! ROFL...
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:06:33 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Hmmmm……..how much time you got?
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:08:23 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Whoa!!! Just now can see my post somehow got posted multiple times. Have NO idea how that happened. Only did it once. I remember this occurred once or more in the past with some peeps, but it's been a long time.
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:12:52 2018
User: poptart
Message:If I recall, the comp was to pick a game, pick the W/L'ers and if you were right, you were safe for the week, and if you were wrong you were eliminated. BUT, you couldn't use those two teams again. Was that how it went?
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:14:12 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Yes, or something very similar to that. Seems like Buzz was in last year, too. When does the season start?
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:15:46 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:I believe we were each supposed to pick *two* games.
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:31:43 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:And looks like I was wrong; we only picked one game per week.
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:36:28 2018
User: poptart
Message:Instead of being eliminated after picking a wrong choice, I'd rather see we stay in each week... +1 for each week we are right, +0 for each week we are wrong.
but, Snowy is commissioner. I'll let him decide!
Date: Thu Sep 6 10:48:29 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:That's a pretty good idea. And 2 picks each week would flavor, yet still be simple to track.
Date: Thu Sep 6 11:08:32 2018
User: poptart
Message:but if you pick two and cannot pick those four teams in subsequent weeks, we would run out of teams before running out of weeks.
Date: Thu Sep 6 11:38:58 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:True. I didn't mean to imply that one couldn't double up on teams. But we did that last year, with only 1 pick/week.
How about...………..2 picks/week, but there must be 30 days before re-using the same team? Another nice wrinkle would be to prohibit using one's hometown teams, right?
Also...….there could be a provision, using your +/- concept, of being allowed to pick 3 teams at some point near the end, like in December. Think of it as sort of an on-sides kick allowance. LOL.
Or...…..pick, say, 3 or 4 teams per week, and you can't use the same team twice in a row. Just brainstorming.....
Date: Thu Sep 6 15:59:13 2018
User: poptart
Message:first game is tonight, btw. you asked earlier...
Snowy, waiting for the ruling on the field. What say you?
Date: Thu Sep 6 19:33:07 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Well...….doing my own independent sleuthing/investigative reporting...……...I found out the season starts tonight. Slightly too early, but WAY better than the ridiculously early starts of (professional) baseball and hoops.
And yes - where is Pete Rozelle?
Date: Sat Sep 8 12:12:26 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I just deleted about 4 or 5 dups above, TN. Now, I will check out the content of the thread.
Date: Sat Sep 8 12:18:10 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I see we missed the first contest.
Frankly, I think it all may be too cumbersome for me to get into this year. I am still good for the original post, with every contestant awarded a win by the Eagles Thursday night. Or, whatever anybody else wants. Actually, to get things in shape, we could start with Week 2 as being week 1, if a good scheme can be worked out and folks think it's a good idea.
Date: Sat Sep 8 12:20:52 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:OKay. Here was last year's contest:
I'm not in any pickem pools this year, and I can say with confidence that my record would suck by now, and getting worse.
I recall something from our Post-Gazette newspaper, that a contest would include these terms. Pick one win each week, and keep on going until your next week's pick loses. Then you are out. And, if I recall correctly, you can't pick the same team again that season.
There is still a lot of season left, and plenty of time for most-if-not-all of us to be eliminated. If so, Thursday Night would start the next week. Anybody want to try?
If we carry it to the Playoffs, obviously, we would all start with a clean slate to continue.
If you picked the Pats in Week 10, in the Playoffs you could pick them again. Once. It would require some strategy. (Pick an NFC team in the first round and save the Pats? And then another AFC team in the second round, etc.)
Say we all are eliminated before season's end. Then, we could all start anew for the playoffs...
Any takers, for this week?
I would be good with that one again, if others agree.
Date: Sat Sep 8 20:09:39 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Snowguy, did you read my suggestions? Just wondering. Also, I had already posted your post initiating last year's contest, for reference. I don't mind doing the same thing again, but what do you say about the fact that early on, there was a near-50% attrition rate? Most of the peeps are out after, oh, 4-5-6 weeks. And what about pop's idea? I think that's pretty good.
Just trying to make a workable solution that let's more folks play for longer - not dissing you.
Also...………..maybe start a new thread with "NFL" in the title, to attract more players?
("Snowguy's rockin' and rollin', bang-up, outlandishly-entertaining, thrill-a-minute 2018 NFL pick 'em contest".)
Date: Sat Sep 8 20:37:51 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I think I would prefer to defer to your plan. Just lay it out, and I will participate!!
Date: Sat Sep 8 20:44:00 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Pop, you want to be commissioner?
Date: Sun Sep 9 09:49:45 2018
User: poptart
Message:A) So we are picking two teams? Can't use for next 3 football weeks? (So what you pick this week --winners OR losers--, can't use until Week 5) and then count up the points?
Or
B) 4 picks, can't use those in next week, count up points -- I think this will be tougher because those 8 teams have different match-ups the following week that you couln't choose from.
I can be commissioner....
Date: Sun Sep 9 10:39:32 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Let me think on these things a day or two, but I think we can figure something out.
And remember, it should be a rule that you can't pick your hometown team, right?
We're open to ideas from anybody...….
Date: Sun Sep 9 10:46:33 2018
User: poptart
Message:How about we all skip this week and start up on Thursday?
Date: Sun Sep 9 10:50:24 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Oh, sure, I had no idea we would start this weekend. I didn't even know the season started 'til a few hours before it did. On the other hand...………………………..we (or just you?) could do a practice run. Pretend you're you, me, Snowguy, Cubic Sprock, etc., and pick some teams for fun, and see how it goes. Obviously the most egregiously distasteful part of that task would be pretending to be me or Snowguy, so you may not really want to go there. Ha!
Date: Sun Sep 9 14:04:34 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I say, start Thursday.
Date: Sun Sep 9 17:33:06 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:Hmmmm... all things considered perhaps we should look at how a tie will be handled.
Date: Sun Sep 9 17:34:08 2018
User: poptart
Message:Giving TN until Tuesday to give more thought. Then will post a new thread with "NFL" in the subject line... shooting for mid-day Tuesday to post. Or earlier.
Date: Mon Sep 10 14:35:12 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:One way to deal with a tie is to let our contestants who had chosed that game, to pick an extra game the next week.
Waiting with baited breath!
Date: Mon Sep 10 16:11:17 2018
User: poptart
Message:I like that idea!
TN suggested not being able to pick your home team... so Pats would be out for me, Steelers for Snowy. IDK what team TN is a fan of, or any others that may want to participate.
a) I suggest those restrictions come off in post-season.... yay/nay
b) also post season: do we want to open up to being able to pick EACH post season game, instead of just 1 or 2? those behind can pick up some ground. yay/nay.
Date: Mon Sep 10 17:13:50 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Pop, did you try to run any simulations? I'm super busy these last few days, but will still try to come up with something by tomorrow.
I was just jivin' on the hometown pick stuff, as you all (esp. Snowy) are such homers. Kept waiting on one of you to take the bait - which I guess you *barely* finally have. I really don't have a favorite team; maybe Hotlanta? But really, just usually for the underdog - and of course being against cheaters (if you...cough...deflategate....catch my drift). Would like very much to see the perennial bridesmaids Minnesota and Buffalo win a Super Bowl or two. Beyond that, also would be great to see teams like the Chargers, Redskins, Tampa, Cleveland, Charlotte, and even Houston/Memphis/Nashville do well. Certainly both your all's teams have already won way more their share, so let some of the other folks have a chance, right?
And yes, for post-season, pick 'em all, like we did last(?) year.
Date: Mon Sep 10 18:00:11 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:BTW........I'd really much rather do this for college football - a much more entertaining game - but that gets pretty hairy in terms of spreads, a huge universe to pick from, etc.
We need CS to come back and defend his title. (Hope I remember that correctly.)
Date: Tue Sep 11 09:30:03 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Ok...…….....I haven't made time to do any sort of simulations, other than in my headbone, but here's how I see it, completely up to Commissioner Poptart to codify:
I like the idea of, for the regular season, each contestant picking 3 games/week, and using pop's idea of +/-, that gives outcomes of 0,1,2, or 3. I personally might prefer the literal +/-, which would give outcomes of -3, -1, +1, or +3. That would show a better status of a picker vs. pure luck. So each week, you either lose big, lose 2/3, win 2/3, or win big. BUT...…...the idea of accumulating a positive number (0,1,2,3) isn't bad, either. Also shows how much better than chance a picker is just by ordinal numbers.
I further propose that this contest be open to late-comers for an additional 2 (or 3?) weeks, *with the provision* that they come in as a -1 for each week they're late. IF, HOWEVER, as few as one pre-entered person scores a -3 for that week (or a 0 using 0,1,2,3), then the latecomer must also be saddled with a -3 (or 0) for that week. Hope that makes sense. That would possibly attract other entrants who would like to show how good they are by overtaking some theoretical leader.
There are 32 NFL teams, so picking 3 games per week "uses up" 6 teams. So the provision that a pick can't be used for the following 2 weeks "uses up" 18 teams over a 3-week period, if'n my math is accurate. At this point, I'm torn between "re-setting" the process, to open them all up every 3 weeks, or maintaining the "wait out the next 2 weeks" scenario. I think I prefer the latter; otherwise it'd be easier to game the system (such as it is), and pop could pick her Patriots in week 3 (of the contest), and then again in week 4. But that *could* be done. Her call there, I think.
Ties are very rare in the NFL, but they happen, as Snowguy points out. I'm fine with either having an extra pick the next week, or just calling it a tie, and the participant might score a -2,0, or +2 (or 0,1,2) for that week. Again, the Commissioner's call.
Although Snowguy's plan worked fine last year, the contestants dwindled too quickly with quick losses. This plan will keep people in the game.
I think picking 3 games/week is sort of in the sweet spot of difficulty, record-keeping, analysis time, etc., without limiting too much the re-use of teams.
[That's my plan. Below this line are additional flavors/enhancements that the Commissioner could consider. Just running them up the flagpole.]
=========================================================
Alternatively, picking 4 games/week, which would "use up" 24 teams over a 3-week period is attractive, because it forces a picker to pay attention to (and 'utilize') more teams. But then the analysis time sort of gets pretty big. (Or does it? I really don't know.) This sort of plan (4 picks/week), to a serious player (not myself, I don't think), would involve more schedule-checking and planning.
In summary, I think I like 3, but 4 is workable. OR...………...we could get *really* creative, and require a contestant to pick *every* team (one way or another) before making a third pick on any one particular team. That gets pretty complicated pretty quickly, though. I think that's outside the bounds of simplicity.
Yet one more idea along those lines would be to escalate the number of picks per week - starting with maybe 2 picks for the first few weeks, then 3, then 4. But again, record-keeping gets hairy quickly.
ALL THESE ARE JUST MY IDEAS AND MY FEELINGS WON'T BE HURT ONE IOTA IF ANYTHING I SUGGEST IS "OVERRULED".
I think we start fresh with the playoffs, and then pick each game, although that gets unwieldy for scorekeeping. (Though not *that* bad.)
.e TN settles back in his stadium seat and awaits the ruling from "up above". The "upon further review" process...…..
Date: Tue Sep 11 09:38:04 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Minor (self)"further review": For simplicity, I think the 0,1,2,3 choices for 3 picked games works better than -3,-1,+1,+3. With pure ordinal tallying, a contestant can easily "count up" their score at any time by just adding up how many games they've "won" so far for the season, with no subtraction to worry one's pretty little head over.
So...……..if The Commissioner so desires, allowing latecomers in would give them a 0(?) for weeks they've missed? Or whatever the lowest score for any other contestant is for those weeks?
Date: Tue Sep 11 09:50:52 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:One more thing: timing of picks. Like most all of the players and coaches, I hate the concept of Thursday night games, but they're there. I propose that certainly a contestant can pick a Thursday night game before gametime, but it MUST be inclusive with his/her other 2 (or whatever pop decides) picks. (But that's just my opinion.) In other words, one cannot make, or change a pick after the results of a Thursday game are known - IF one picks a winner for that game. (Which adds a tiny bit more risk to picking a Thursday game.) As to when the (non-Thursday) picks must be finalized...……..I suppose Sunday noon?
Date: Tue Sep 11 10:49:45 2018
User: poptart
Message:okay, I need to read through that all more carefully...
the way I was thinking was that you pick a winner/loser for 2 teams each game, so BOTH of those would be out the next week. If you do that for 3 teams, odds of picking 3 match-ups for the next week is very slim, and probably zero the following week. so, I don't think we are on the same page here. Just the pick for winner is out for 2 more weeks?
Date: Tue Sep 11 11:06:12 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Hmmmm………...we must not be on the same page - but I'm not sure why not. So, yes, we agree on your first sentence. What I was saying is both picks (both winner and loser) would be unavailable for the following two weeks.
Hypothetical example, with zero thought of who is actually playing:
(Our) week 1: I pick:
Texas over Philly
Green Bay over Cleveland
Jets over Seahawks
No matter what happens, I can't pick any of those 6 teams either of the next two weeks (as winner OR loser). In (our) week 4, those 6 teams would then be available for picks again.
Date: Wed Sep 12 14:29:03 2018
User: poptart
Message:so, the following week, those 6 teams are out of play, so that's 6 games out of 16. that leaves 10. pick 3 of those, and now you are out another 6 teams... how many match-ups can you find when you eliminate 12 teams from potential winners OR losers?
I'll pick a few at random...
week 1
falcons eagles
bills ravens
jaguars giants
now, all of those are out of play for this week.
week 2
colts redskins
texans titans
chiefs steelers
week 3, you can only pick from 7 match-ups...
jets browns
raiders dolphins
bengals panthers
Week 4, you can release week 1, but that will mean approx. 7 match-ups to pick from again.
okay, so with my sample, leaves 7... because two of the ones I picked above are their by-week.
this is going to take some effort on my part to make sure people aren't double-dipping from the pool!
but I can do that....
Date: Wed Sep 12 14:43:26 2018
User: poptart
Message:unless I hear OBJECTIONS, this will be the sitch:
* pick three match-ups for the week, state the winner/loser.
* those six teams are removed from choices for the NEXT TWO football weeks, regardless if you chose them for the win or for the loss.
* you will get a +1 for each correct pick.
* you will get a -1 for each incorrect pick.
* a tie means 0, but the two teams are released to be chosen again
All picks must be completed BY 1:00 Eastern on Sunday (Sunday kick-off) unless he/she is picking a Thursday game, in which case all picks must be completed by kick-off Thursday.
** EXCEPTION: Week 15, picks are due before kickoff Saturday Dec. 15.
Late-comers:
[start at zero??]
Playoffs:
* all teams available to choose from throughout the playoffs. [pick half the match-ups each week???]
TN/Snowy: please provide feedback and I will post in a fresh thread.
Date: Wed Sep 12 15:00:44 2018
User: poptart
Message:Late-comers:
[start at zero or -1 from person furthest behind??]
Date: Wed Sep 12 15:09:21 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:1. I guess I didn't realize (at least fully) that picking 6 teams eliminates 6 games (not just teams) the following week. But it does. So it sounds like, some of the time at least, there will only be 7 matchups from which to pick the winner/loser. If that's right, that's kinda ok with me. Makes for just a bit more head-scratching. But actually, unless we get a whole lot more players, I think that's easily manageable. Just keep a list for each player
2. If we're going with +/-1, then it hardly seem fair for a late-comer to start at 0, when a 'regular' starter might have a negative number. I say either give them a -1 for each week missed, or use the 0,1,2,3 scenario, and give them a zero.
3. I like the idea of picking ALL the matchups in the post-season, but we can figure that out later.
Are *you* happy with this, Ms. Rozelle? Would picking only 2 games be better? Seems a bit simplistic, but maybe we/you need that. I'm fine with the set-up as you have posted. Thanks. Bill my franchise fee in the usual manner.
Date: Wed Sep 12 15:11:18 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:Your call on the late-comers penalty. Shouldn't be *too* severe. Give them a fighting chance, even if it's Denny or Cubic Sprock.
Date: Wed Sep 12 23:56:46 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:I also hadn't realized that picking three games, six teams, actually eliminates 12 teams from the next week. (The six participants and their six next opponents, except for when some in the first group play each other the next week.) Ouch.
That could definitely make things pretty dodgy. in all weeks following the first week.
I'm glad I passed on the mantle this year!
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