Subject: NFL pick'em contest at FC

Date: Thu Nov 1 11:58:20 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
My picks, but with a note to follow: DAL over TN CAR over TB SF over OAK (The Steelers, for this week, are not included in my "Options." Despite that, I would have likely chosen them to defeat the Ravens.) So, my picks this week would have probably been: DAL over TN --possible -1 or +1 CAR over TB --possible -1 or +1 (Underdog PIT) over BAL --possible -1 or +2

Date: Fri Nov 2 10:58:07 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Just to make sure we're on the same page, Snowy, this underdog scheme hasn't been implemented yet. Also, I don't think my wondering if a contestant can pick less than 3 games is allowed. Since that wasn't codified, my understanding is that that is not allowed, either. I would sure like that option this week.

Date: Fri Nov 2 11:01:17 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
Yes. I think we are on the same page. The first group are my actual picks for this week. The second group is how I most likely "would have" picked, had we implemented the proposed scheme.

Date: Fri Nov 2 11:12:53 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ok, going out on a limb a bit...…. Saints to Breese past the undefeated LAR Vikes over Lions CAR over TB It's quite conceivable I could lose all 3 of those, but "that's why we play this contest", right?

Date: Fri Nov 2 12:23:08 2018
User: poptart
Message:
CAR over TB WAS over ATL NE over GB I didn't have many to choose from this week, and tough ones!

Date: Mon Nov 5 23:46:23 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
Above, I posed three contests, of which I won two. (Carolina and San Fran., and lost Dallas) Had the proposed system been in effect, I would have substituted underdog Steelers for one of the games. (I supposed it would be for San Fran, but frankly I wasn't sure.) But be that as it may, had I been able to play my underdog, I would have had +2 on this week instead of +1. This kind of setup would finally cause some real separation, as we try the (weekly, or even occasional) underdog, with the risks and rewards that come from that territory!

Date: Tue Nov 6 11:42:48 2018
User: poptart
Message:
I'd be happy to pass the baton. I don't have the time to look into underdog thing. [I don't gamble, so this against the spread is something I've never looked into....]

TN	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 8	WAS	NYG	1
		IND	OAK	1
		NE	BUF	1	3	11
	wk 9	CAR	TB	1
		MIN	DET	1
		NO	LAR	1	3	14
	Options
		ATL	CLE
		ARI	KC
		MIA	GB
		DAL	PHI
HUFFY	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 8	PHI	JAX	1
		PIT	CLE	1
		DET	SEA	-1	1	9
	wk 9	CHI	BUF	1
		CAR	TB	1
		NE	GB	1	3	12
	Options
		NO	CIN
		ARI	KC
		LAC	OAK
		NYG	SF
SNOW	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 8	PHI	JAX	1
		PIT	CLE	1
		DET	SEA	-1	1	11
	wk 9	SF	OAK	1
		CAR	TB	1
		DAL	TEN	-1	1	12
	Options
		NO	CIN
		ARI	KC
		BUF	NYJ
		MIA	GB
POP	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 8	PHI	JAX	1
		PIT	CLE	1
		KC	DEN	1	3	13
	wk 9	CAR	TB	1
		WAS	ATL	-1
		NE	GB	1	1	14
	Options
		DET	CHI
		NO	CIN
		BUF	NYJ
		LAC	OAK
		SEA	LAR
		NYG	SF

Date: Tue Nov 6 21:35:52 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
This would not be "picking against the spread" which is a gambling thing. It would be, simply, picking an underdog to win a game. If a team is a three-point underdog and you pick that team to win teh game, you get the bonus. (2 points instead of +1.) A person who picks all three successfully, including the underdog, would earn +4 points for that week.

Date: Wed Nov 7 13:54:55 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
Chiefs will scalp the Cards Packers will can the Dolphins Jets will scorch the Bills If I had an nderdog oick this week, it would be : Jags (3-point underdog) scratching the Colts

Date: Thu Nov 8 03:41:35 2018
User: huffy
Message:
KC over ARI LAC over OAK NO over CIN

Date: Thu Nov 8 09:47:40 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Chiefs scalp Cards Packers can the Fish Eagles lasso the Cowboys (apologies to Snowguy - but I may have been the one who started such cuteness)

Date: Thu Nov 8 10:30:49 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
You were, TN. You were.

Date: Fri Nov 9 17:02:18 2018
User: poptart
Message:
Jets will take off against the Bills 49ers will take a pickaxe to the Giants LA will ram the Seahawks.

Date: Mon Nov 12 08:16:56 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
I got two of three. My fictitious underdog pick was the three-point dog Jags. A loser for me. They lost by three points, but no matter it is win/lose, not point spread.

Date: Mon Nov 12 08:45:23 2018
User: poptart
Message:
it was a good week for Huffy. Snow & TN got 2 out of 3. I got 1 out of 2 so far, so will only fare as well as Snowy and TN at best, right on the chin at worst. (kinda like my Pats this week! lol) In my other contest, if last night's game went in my favor, I would still have the potential to move into 1st place. but no such luck. I did close the gap between me and guy #1, but will still lag, regardless of tonight. drat!

Date: Tue Nov 13 13:20:19 2018
User: poptart
Message:
look at the "chatter" thread for info. I was going to c/p the table again, but I have it prepped already for the upcoming info. apologies for the YUUUUGE inconvenience! :)

Date: Tue Nov 13 13:30:35 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
While you and Snowguy are currently slightly trailing, it's clearly for strategic reasons, like giving up a pawn for position in chess. That's obvious because you both have a clear advantage this week in terms of number of games to choose from. Sneaky. Clever.

Date: Tue Nov 13 15:32:42 2018
User: poptart
Message:
you'd think that... but I had strategic advantage prior week(?) and it did not transpire. Could not convert that drive to a TD! LOL

Date: Wed Nov 14 09:46:48 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
You're gonna hafta work on converting in the red zone!

Date: Wed Nov 14 16:43:00 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
"While you and Snowguy are currently slightly trailing, it's clearly for strategic reasons,..." I wish. :(

Date: Wed Nov 14 21:04:27 2018
User: huffy
Message:
I like the steelers but the rest of my options do not make me optimistic. PIT over JAX ATL over DAL HOU over WSH

Date: Thu Nov 15 14:46:13 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
IN BAL ------ HOU WAS ------ PIT JAX Steelers pound some rivets into a Jaguars cage DEN LAC Chargers stampede over the other horseys PHI NO The Saints go Marchin' in, Eagles hover but can't fly MIN CHI ------ My underdog this week "would be" Bengals 3.5-4.5 underdogs over Ravens (--Ravens: "Never More") (A very difficult choice on the one hand, but on the other: screw 'em)

Date: Sat Nov 17 17:20:52 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ravens de-claw the Bengals Lightning Bolts shock the Ponies Steelmen drive more of those rivets into the Jax cage

Date: Sun Nov 18 10:29:06 2018
User: poptart
Message:
PIT over JAX NO over PHI LAC over DEN

Date: Sun Nov 18 16:09:42 2018
User: poptart
Message:
Watching the end of the PIzt/JAX game. Exciting stuff! Penalty against JAX with 15sec left was a lifesaver for PIT... Not over yet!

Date: Tue Nov 20 20:24:59 2018
User: poptart
Message:
please check for accuracy.

TN	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 11	BAL	CIN	1
		LAC	DEN	-1
		PIT	JAX	1	1	16
	wk 12
					0	16
	Options
		CHI	DET
		ATL	NO
		SEA	CAR
		NE	NYJ
		SF	TB
		TEN	HOU
HUFFY	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 11	PIT	JAX	1
		ATL	DAL	-1
		HOU	WAS	1	1	16
	wk 12
					0	16
	Options
		CHI	DET
		SEA	CAR
		NE	NYJ
		NYG	PHI
		SF	TB
		MIA	IND
		GB	MIN
SNOW	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 11	PIT	JAX	1
		NO	PHI	1
		LAC	DEN	-1	1	14
	wk 12
					0	14
	Options
		CHI	DET
		WAS	DAL
		OAK	BAL
		SEA	CAR
		CLE	CIN
		SF	TB
		TEN	HOU
POP	week #	winner	loser	pts	wk pts	total pts
	wk 10	NYJ	BUF	-1
		LAR	SEA	1
		SF	NYG	-1	-1	13
	wk 11	PIT	JAX	1
		NO	PHI	1
		LAC	DEN	-1	1	14
	wk 12
					0	14
	Options
		CHI	DET
		WAS	DAL
		OAK	BAL
		CLE	CIN
		MIA	IND
		GB	MIN
		TEN	HOU

Date: Wed Nov 21 15:43:46 2018
User: poptart
Message:
oops... looks like I removed Wk 10 and added a blank Wk 12 before posting here. I was tired last night when I did it. my bad.

Date: Wed Nov 21 22:00:56 2018
User: poptart
Message:
DAL over WAS I have plans tomorrow all day, and I haven't finished looking at the teams. I'll look into the rest later. That'll have to do until later. Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Date: Wed Nov 21 23:29:22 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Uh.......that's against the rules you/we started with on the initial post of this thread, pop. I'm the one who proposed that rule, tho, and I really am not sure it's needed. You're Commish..........and personally I'm fine with doing away with that rule. It has a purpose, but I think it's really quite minimal. Unless someone else objects, that's fine with me. (But would prefer the Cowboys get scalped.)

Date: Thu Nov 22 02:14:40 2018
User: huffy
Message:
CHI over DET PHI over NYG IND over MIA

Date: Thu Nov 22 06:34:40 2018
User: poptart
Message:
What rule am I breaking? I don’t recall saying they had to be posted all at once and we’ve allowed posting after after Thursday. You just can’t pick after games have started. What am I forgetting?

Date: Thu Nov 22 09:22:56 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
So...……...from the very first post of this thread, which you started: poptart: "All picks must be completed BY 1:00 Eastern on Sunday (Sunday kick-off) unless he/she is picking a Thursday game, in which case all picks must be completed by kick-off Thursday." ----------------- Going further back, originally...……….from the thread Snowguy started entitled "New game, just for chuckles?", when you asked me to conjure up some ground rules, I wrote this: Date: Tue Sep 11 09:50:52 2018 User: TNmountainman Message: One more thing: timing of picks. Like most all of the players and coaches, I hate the concept of Thursday night games, but they're there. I propose that certainly a contestant can pick a Thursday night game before gametime, but it MUST be inclusive with his/her other 2 (or whatever pop decides) picks. (But that's just my opinion.) In other words, one cannot make, or change a pick after the results of a Thursday game are known - IF one picks a winner for that game. (Which adds a tiny bit more risk to picking a Thursday game.) As to when the (non-Thursday) picks must be finalized...……..I suppose Sunday noon? ------------------------------------------------------ (And I'm pretty sure no one has yet done that - to pick only a Thursday game, then make other pics.) But again, for emphasis, it's quite cool by me to do away with that rule. YOU have the power!

Date: Thu Nov 22 09:37:27 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ok, while I'm here: pop's Pats pull the HUGE upset over the mighty Jets Texans rustle up the Titans Saints come marching in over the Falcons

Date: Thu Nov 22 12:46:13 2018
User: poptart
Message:
My bad. I barely got the updates out this week.

Date: Thu Nov 22 12:57:06 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Ain't no thang. It's all good. Enjoy your day!

Date: Fri Nov 23 12:49:20 2018
User: poptart
Message:
in addition to my DAL over WAS, IND over MIA HOU over TEN ...taking one less option next week because I don't like the chances in the CLE/CIN pick.

Date: Sun Nov 25 15:00:25 2018
User: poptart
Message:
hey buddy (snowy), you're limiting your picks! going to pick any this week??

Date: Sun Nov 25 15:22:29 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
I flubbed pretty badly this week, and didn't get my picks in early. At this point, I only have one game to choose from, Texns over the Titans (By the way, I was in Browns country this week, and I totally predicted their win, but not by the margin I am seeing!

Date: Sun Nov 25 15:47:16 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
So now we have the question I've posed at least twice...……………………………..*can* we make less than 3 picks (without penalty)? There was one week about 4(?) weeks ago where I absolutely didn't want to make 3 picks, but got no review from the booth. I guess now we'll know...…...

Date: Sun Nov 25 19:22:55 2018
User: poptart
Message:
TN, I'm torn on the skip-pick scenario because then the teams are open for the following week, giving you far more options and not taking any dings for that. I don't think it's a "neutral" situation to just skip. But, if you take a ding, you would still get those options the following week... to me, that's a balanced option. so, I'm leaning towards taking a -1 for a non-pick.

Date: Sun Nov 25 22:08:39 2018
User: huffy
Message:
I don’t know where I am on this. This week I felt that I just had so many options it was like being in a candy store and everyone was like me there were just so many games to choose from. Not tipping this week would only hurt the tipster and so far none of us have got a game wrong. So this week the penalty for not tipping is nearly well you didn’t score, end of penalty. Snowy can get the last game right if that happens score 1 everyone else will have 3. When he had so many options to tip from I kind of think that is enough of a penalty. HUGE BUT - Before this week there have been so many weeks were there were so few options if there were no penalty I like TN might not have tipped in 3 games. When you only have 3 or 4 games to choose from find 3 good selections is quite hard. In which case not tipping 3 games could be a tactical ploy to avoid the negatives. In that case I would say -1 for each game not tipped in. Not tipping should never be a tactical option and I would be totally opposed to anyone doing that. We all have lives and this is a for fun tipping comp when he had 7 games to pick from I do not believe that not picking was a tactical option. If you have to have a single rule for every round then I suppose you have to go with the -1 but if the rule can be flexible I would think an “if you have 7 (so you have to tip in less than half the available games) games or more to select from and you make less than 3 selections then there is no penalty for the games you fail to tip in.” What I would have thought unfair was if someone other than the four of us started tipping this week with our scores 16, 16, 14 & 14 they would have started on 11 with every game open to them. The winner should be one of us we have tipped every week of this competition.

Date: Mon Nov 26 01:46:48 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Very well-expressed viewpoints by both pop and huffy. I'll be happy with whatever ruling Commish comes up with - as per my comments from Sept. 14 and Sept. 15 in this thread. Apparently my hypothetical case of Snowguy being on a book-signing tour was not just hypothetical.

Date: Mon Nov 26 07:26:26 2018
User: Snowguy
Message:
The way I see it is I had two losses from the non-picks.

Date: Mon Nov 26 07:41:11 2018
User: poptart
Message:
Huffy, exactly what I was trying to express. I think there needs to be some balancing for non-picks (more options open for next week is a big plus). but, I don't want to ding too fiercely. I hadn't ruled on it before because I just don't know the appropriate answer. Let me think some more about it. going into the playoffs, I was thinking 1 pt for wildcard, 2 for div, 3 for conf, and 4 for superbowl. Thoughts?

Date: Mon Nov 26 13:26:18 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Crazy(?) idea...……………………………..split the difference and give Snowy -1/2 for each game he didn't pick. That gives him -1 this weekend, not counting The TX/TN game. And that *could* be a rule going forward, too. You're not ruthlessly dinged, but there is a penalty for not picking. I might well have taken that option one week. Maybe a bit unwieldy, but actually could introduce yet another strategic variable.

Date: Mon Nov 26 13:52:52 2018
User: poptart
Message:
I was thinking about the half point as well. I need to get caught up with work before I ponder further.

Date: Mon Nov 26 16:55:01 2018
User: poptart
Message:
okay, so this is what I'm thinking (multiple options, or a combo): there are 6 games in the upcoming week that snowy currently has open where some would not be options had he picked. with NO negative points for missing picks, he's likely to be -2 from second lowest performer (me), which is what I was thinking for newcomers anyway. Suggestion: put those 6 games into a hat and randomly draw two that are removed from Snowy's picks next week. No negative points for no-picks. Alternatives could include -.5 or -1 per non-pick and remove 0 or 1 game next week. I like the suggested one because it means he's not far behind. It would also mean he would have 7 games to pick from (which is what Huffy will have next week vs. 8 for TN and myself). This could be done going forward. Also, going forward, there are no byes... I'd like to up it to 4 games, maybe spreading our points out a bit. Please weigh in on suggestion. Also weigh in on doing that going forward. and upping the games to 4 picks.

Date: Mon Nov 26 17:51:30 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Just quickly, since I'm trying to do this from my phone..... It's not clear to me what you're referring to by "I like the suggested one...". Meaning -1 instead of -1/2? Or remove 1 game from his picks instead of 0? Back at the beginning, joey was suggesting/fearing that for some weeks some players wouldn't even have 3 gamed to pick from. (To my knowledge, only Mr.Fixit here has supercomputer access, so we didn't do the math on that.) I didn't think so, which so far has turned out to be the case. But by upping it to 4 picks a week, then the odds of that are raised. But so far, each player had had at least 4 options. There's a way around that potentiality, however. "Let it be declared" that if any player has less than 4 games to pick from, then allow said player to use any *losing* team from *2* weeks prior to be an option to pick from. If there were no losses that week, then any loss from the just-ended week. But I sort of doubt that'll be necessary. All that is not to say I'm in favor of the change. I guess I'm ambivalent, and am not sure of the motivation/driving force behind it - other than just adding more 'action'. I have also grown more inclined to do the 'against the spread' thing. As someone who a large percentage of the time pulls for the underdog, it grieves my soul to find myself picking Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Ravens, Dallas, etc. Playing against the spread would significantly do away with that. It's probably too late to wade into that this year, tho.

Date: Mon Nov 26 17:57:49 2018
User: poptart
Message:
Suggestion: No negative points, put the 6 games into a hat and draw 2 that will be removed from Snowy's options next week.

Date: Mon Nov 26 19:50:29 2018
User: TNmountainman
Message:
Without checking, if huffy is correct that no one has lost a game this weekend, then these become the two scenarios tonight: TX wins: Snowguy scores 1 point; the others will be +3. TN wins: Snowguy scores -1; the others will be +1. So if I've got that right, Snowy is going to lose two games to the field either way, correct? Or another way to think about it is that he split his two "ghost" picks - winning one and losing one. I believe that's what huffy stated in the first part of his post - which would be no further penalty. Again, I'm totally ok with the final call from the Commissioner's box. But here's an idea to make the "picks from a hat" smart just a tad (assuming she goes with the "no further penalty" scenario). Instead of removing two picks at random, remove the two games that the oddsmakers say would be the easiest picks. Make him work for his penance. Just a suggestion......