Subject: SirPape breaks new ground

Date: Thu Jul 10 11:38:33 2008
User: Mr.Trick
Message:
A pretty momentous day in the world of Freecell folks, SirPape has managed a streak of 2 in the 4x4s, smashing the old record of...erm...1. A hearty congrats to him for being the first to achieve such a streak in this variant! Will he go for three, or leave it there for eternity......

Date: Thu Jul 10 14:14:05 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
Thanks Mr.Trick! Let me add something that probably no one wants to hear (giggle). When I won the first 4x4 game of my record streak I liked the idea to apply my own spiritual creation technique and - by combining thoughts and spiritual energy – influence the Freecell dialer to give me another winnable game and – wow!! -it seemed to work, though it has been my first try. I am very curious to experience what I am capable to do by my spiritual skills and so I am going for streak 3 now. I am also pretty much aware that it is impossible to share such experiences with others, so I am doing this for myself only. I use my spiritual skills for decades now – usually for much more important things than to win a card game. Would be glad if I motivated by this someone to discover and to experience his own spiritual skills. Have fun!

Date: Thu Jul 10 15:00:29 2008
User: hotnurse
Message:
SirPape, you aren't the only one! Being raised a "good"lol, Catholic girl I used to pray to St. Anthony (I think he's the patron saint of lost causes, or something like that), so during some of the tougher tournament games I send up a prayer to him. More times than not I will crack that game. I really don't care if anyone believes it or not, I do and that's all that matters. Good luck to you and your streak. KMc

Date: Thu Jul 10 15:55:41 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
Thanks hotnurse! I believe very much that it is possible to do it the way you do. However if you are stuck in a situation where a game is messed up, neither St. Anthony nor God himself can help you. Same for unwinnable games. To win tournaments by the help of prayers is nothing I like to do. If I win a game it should be because of my natural skills as a player. However for the unwinnable games I feel different. Instead of being frustrated by unwinnable games I find it rather cool to have at least some winnable in a row – especially when it comes to 4x4. .smile

Date: Thu Jul 10 18:30:11 2008
User: ElGuapo
Message:
Something I got to know, son. How did you come up with that ace of spades? You won't believe me. I'm your father, I'll believe you. Magic. Magic? [nods] I believe you. Thanks.

Date: Fri Jul 11 06:36:35 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
Something you got to know, father. How did I come up with streak 3? You won't believe me. I'm your son, so you should believe me. Magic!!! Magic? [nods] Hope you believe me! Thanks!!

Date: Fri Jul 11 06:43:54 2008
User: kenwa
Message:
what are the odds of getting 3 consecutive solvable 4x4'S?

Date: Fri Jul 11 09:30:09 2008
User: roo.
Message:
More than 1 in a million I should think. Congrats on your achievement SirPape. It is indeed new ground broken.

Date: Fri Jul 11 10:35:06 2008
User: ElGuapo
Message:
Are you kidding me? He got 3?

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:18:57 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
lol!!!! I bet kenwa and roo. can’t explain why ElGuapo asks „Are you kidding me? He got 3?“ while ElGuapo is apparently confused what kenwa and roo. are talking about! rofl … lmao …. Well guys I take a deep breath and then try to clarify the situation. It is simply that: When ElGuapo looked up my streak he did it at times when I was at streak 2. Knowing how unlikely it is that I would achieve streak 3, he is totally convinced that it was impossible for me to go any further. kenwa and roo. however looked up my streak today. Well today it is streak 3. And so both of them certainly can not explain why ElGuapo is so convinced that they interpret my streak 2 as three consecutive solvable game and thus thinks they are kidding. So now ElGuapo just let go on your blocking thoughts … streak 3 wasn’t impossible … not for me (smile) …simply look up my streak … it is THREE in between … believe me …

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:41:06 2008
User: CubicSprock
Message:
I see it...but I'm still very skeptical.

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:50:16 2008
User: ElGuapo
Message:
That one shouldn't count. Beg your pardon? I don't think that hand should count. You got any logical reasons why not? My mind wasn't on the game. His mind wasn't on the--. What's your name, son? Johnny. You got a last name? Johnny Hardin. What's your occupation? I'm a gunfighter. I have to assume, since you're still alive ... and playing cards with us ... that you're good at it. Care to find out? Gentlemen, this hand definitely does not count.

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:51:15 2008
User: ninjamouse
Message:
Hmm....when you got to 2 I believed you. Now it's three, not so much, sorry.

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:51:38 2008
User: ElGuapo
Message:
SirPape, I'm at a loss. But I would like to know what your occupation is.

Date: Fri Jul 11 11:58:10 2008
User: firenze
Message:
SirPape, why did you wait until after you played 1000 games until you applied your spiritual creation technique?

Date: Fri Jul 11 12:47:31 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
To all of you who are sceptical: I don’t want to convince anyone of anything, so please believe whatever you want to believe. I am not even interested how do you think that it may be possible to manipulate a system that has proven to be stable for so many years. I know that I just played games like I did before and that is enough for me to know. firence, the first time I had the idea to apply my method, was with the 8x1 and 8x2 variants. I got pretty far – just look up my rank in the all time list – rank 3 in both lists. The frustrating thing however was that those 8x1 and 8x2 streaks did not end due to unwinnable games, but ended when I messed up solvable games by mis-clicking. At that time I guessed that my skills are not sufficient for the 4x4 variant. In between things have changed. Recently I read a book how to create things by thoughts and spiritual energy and in a consequence when I won a 4x4 game this week, it was just natural that I liked the idea to apply my improved creation technique. Part of the idea was that I love Miqueca, who is the player who played 4x4 in total for 137 hours, which is by far the longest time ever someone played 4x4 and it was Miqueca who introduced me to play 4x4 years ago. Love has to do with spiritual energy and so you can count that part of my effort was my love for Miqueca, who I still love very much …

Date: Fri Jul 11 12:57:20 2008
User: CubicSprock
Message:
"how do you think that it may be possible to manipulate a system that has proven to be stable for so many years" really...8x0 and 7x1 stats would say otherwise. and your 8x2 streak is quite funny looking too...just comparing your win percentage to your streak...50% wins and a streak of 31...purely statistically speaking that's a 1/2^31 chance of winning 31 straight given a random starting game...which is less than 1 in 2 BILLION.

Date: Fri Jul 11 13:31:21 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
CubicSprock, I don’t know about 8x0 of 7x1 statistics, but I am a mathematician and know about mathematics a little bit more than you. When I started to play 8x2 I was not good at that variant. So my winning percentage was not very high, plus that I was in Freecell chat when I played it most of the times. Later on I improved my skills significantly. Your calculation is based on the fact that my winning percentage is constant …. You can make such an assumption, from the point of mathematics it is just erroneous. Winning percentages change if you improve your skills. So there is nothing funny with my streak of 31, but only your thought that skills are constant is funny. My skills have improved and l like at most to play the Freakout tournament. And for those three games of my 4x4 streak: First game: I was the only one of 9 players who was able to win it. 2th game: I was the only one of 3 players who was able to win it. Third game: 1 was the only one of 9 players who was able to win it. So my skills have apparently improved crucially over the years. But anyway, I am not interested in discussions like this. If someone is sceptical my experiences tell me that he will remain sceptical and become even more sceptical ever. Good! I don’t judge you or anyone. Be happy with your beliefs and have fun playing freecell.

Date: Fri Jul 11 13:33:14 2008
User: xeena
Message:
I would apply that spiritual energy to the lottery. :}

Date: Fri Jul 11 13:35:18 2008
User: kenwa
Message:
I also am skeptical, that's what i was getting at when I asked what the odds are. I've played a few 4x4's and there are WAY too many that are obviously unwinnable. I'm not a math whizz but if the cumulative average for all level 5 4x4's shows a .02% win rate then that means 2 in 10,000 will be won. So getting 3 consecutive is 1 x5000 x 5000 x 5000 = 1 in 625,000,000,000. help math whizzes? Is that right?

Date: Fri Jul 11 13:55:21 2008
User: dr.jimmyp
Message:
There are a lot of ways to look at it. Rather than the individual solve rate, I would look at the rate of games that have been solved by someone. Currently, of the level 5 4x4 games, 135/32768 = 1/242 = 0.4% have been solved at least once (59 of them only once). Solving your next three games would be .004^3 = 1 in 14 million. But once you have a streak of 1, which will happen eventually, the odds that you get two more winnables in a row is just 1 in 58915. But seeing as how few of these are played, it's pretty likely that a lot more are solvable. If 1% are solvable, then once you have a streak of 1, then it's only 1 in 10000 that you'd get two straight winnable after that. Something like 25000 of the Level 5 8x1 have not been solved. So if you're perfect at 8x1, you'll only win 1 in 4. .25^6 = .00024 = 1 in 4096. 8x2, 14% not yet won. .86^31 = .009. So that's believable that someone could get that high. Besides improving over time, someone might care less with a streak of 0 than a streak of 1.

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:09:06 2008
User: ix
Message:
SirPape, are you sure about the 2nd games statistics? You are the only one to win any 4x4 games in the last several days and I can't find any that are 1 for 3?

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:23:11 2008
User: hotnurse
Message:
What's even more amazing is that the 4x4 streak of three has an average time of 1:16 min. compared to (among many others) the 13x1 streak of three has an average time of 3:13 min. Wow? KMc

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:33:02 2008
User: xeena
Message:
played 1003 games and won 60% is the dead giveaway.

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:36:21 2008
User: firenze
Message:
Are we discussing Einstein's special theory of relativity regarding spacetime. i.e. - because there are more spaces in 13x1 than 4x4, time expands to fill the space.

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:37:33 2008
User: ping2
Message:
"played 1003 games and won 60% is the dead giveaway" It's 0.60%. Just thought I'd ping that out there.

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:46:37 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
xeena: what do you think I am heading for?? Certainly not to win card games (big grin) kenwa: sorry, but 1:625,000,000,000 is totally wrong. dr.jimmyp: well done! I answered that question by my own mathematical investigation and got similar results. I believe that 4x4 players give up too early normally and are not aware that to apply freecell strategies that are successful for other variants isn’t helpful in 4x4. ix: I probably caused some misunderstanding. What I meant was, that when I finished my second game of my 4x4 streak, it was displayed that I was the only one of 3 players who succeeded to win that game. Ok? hotnurse: if I see it correctly then the displayed average time includes all of those games you click away as being certainly unsolvable and this you do often within a few seconds when playing 4x4. So I guess there is nothing amazing about the average time. :-( firence: Interesting question … hmmm … I guess I am clueless about that …

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:48:30 2008
User: xeena
Message:
OMG LOL I thought for sure he had written a solver! I apologize, SirPape, for my confusation. I guess someone would have noticed that a lot sooner!

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:49:22 2008
User: xeena
Message:
Sorry, SirPape, I did not see your post til after I posted.

Date: Fri Jul 11 14:54:37 2008
User: TNmountainman
Message:
I see three players in the all-time 4x4 stats who are 1/1 in that variant, including placebo24, who won his(?) game in a mere 2:47. Having never tried this variant, I'm not sure what to think of SirPape's achievment, but to say it's remarkable is an understatement.

Date: Fri Jul 11 15:52:43 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
Mathematics is an exact science and so let me to add here something for completeness. Considerations of dr.jimmyp and roo. are best so far, but not complete. Don’t groan if I just state that their considerations are based on the assumption that the dialer chooses a 4x4 game independently. I think so too, but wait! To be exact think of this: It is possible that Denny’s dialer searches for a solvable 4x4 game if you have won at least one game. Or serves a solvable game with a higher probability in this case. Who knows? Even if Denny checks his dialer for that and denies, it is thinkable that there is a bug in Denny’s program that just affects the process to choose another game after you won a game. There are many happenings thinkable that just ruin the assumption that the dialer works independently. And there is no way to calculate any mathematical likehood for that – so don’t tell me that you can exclude this or know that this is unlikely. What if Denny decided to change his program last week in a way to make 4x4 more attractive to players, but did not tell? All the mathematical considerations are worthless then, because they are based on the assumption that the dialer chooses card games independently. If the dialer actually does choose card games dependently then it is thinkable that the odds for my streak are 1:1000 for example or even better. So unless there is no proof for the assumption that the dialer works as everyone tends to assume, just be careful with your mathematical statements! So much for the hobby math done on this discussion board from the point of view a professional mathematician.

Date: Fri Jul 11 15:53:46 2008
User: roo.
Message:
Wow, you got to 3! I'm stunned. My 1 in a million calculation was a quick thirty-second "one-in-a-hundred cubed" job based on what I knew about the 4x4 win rate and vigorously rounded down. At the time I didn't know you were on three already SirPape and thought kenwa's question was rhetorical. I just did a further estimate with a calculator of 33000/150 cubed and got a little over 1 in 10 million which agrees fairly well with jimmyp's figure but before reading what jimmyp had written. I agree the average time stat is meaningless because it includes games given up in less than ten or even five seconds when you see all the aces at the top. I know SirPape is a legitimate player and I remember chatting to him and Miqueca a lot in my early days at Netcell. I renew my congrats, now on achieving a "3" and it wouldn't surprise me to see "4", but I bet you won't get it!

Date: Fri Jul 11 16:05:41 2008
User: roo.
Message:
Clearly I hadn't read SirPape's latest posting just a minute before mine but I gained an understanding somewhere that the "dealer" uses an algorithm based on the time of day so that if you win a game and then click "play" immediately you will be dealt a different game than if you had waited 30 seconds. I doubt that Denny changed anything or that the "dealer" has knowledge of your current streak. I ran up a streak of 11 once in 10x0 by playing a one at a time and waiting, much like SirPape is doing now. Such improbable streaks can be achieved against the odds, because statistics works like that, and in a lottery *someone* has to win the big prize!

Date: Fri Jul 11 16:14:26 2008
User: roo.
Message:
The 4x4 best of 3 is now higher than the best 4x5 streak which remains at 2.

Date: Fri Jul 11 16:53:21 2008
User: EZ-Ed.
Message:
I've never understood why some in Netcell like to cast suspicions, without a shred of evidence, that another player somehow used unsavory methods in accomplishing a streak. I still remember all the accusations cast at rgk1 when he first shattered the 8x4 record, sending it to over 12,000. Is the motivation jealousy or what? I've tripped across SirPape in a variant lately and he/she seems like a solid player to me.

Date: Fri Jul 11 17:06:51 2008
User: jimmyp
Message:
I recall a story of a random number generator and some guys who won big in Las Vegas 10 or 30 years ago. Electronic slot machines have a random number generator of sorts. Some old one, however, used a repeating cycle of random numbers, with a new one every, say, 30 seconds. These guys figured this out and bought a slot machine and took it apart and figured out the cycle. Then one of them went to Vegas and figured out which game was on the machine at a point in time, and called that info in back home. His partner on the other end then would figure out when the big hands would hit, and would let the guy know when to play the machine. So, if you're looking for a conspiracy, let's suppose that the freecell computer cycles through in a theoretically known fashion. Let's just say that every 10 seconds, you add 1967 (Denny's birth year) to the game number, mod 32768, and that game number will be dealt. (Anyone who was born in that era probably had to program a pseudo-random number generator in his first computer class, and maybe as a comfortable reminder of his TRS80, Denny has continued to use this code.) Play now, game 1, play in 10 seconds, game 1968, play in 20, 1935, etc. Then _all_ you have to do would be to figure out the cycle, look for when winnable games would come up, and make sure you hit "Play" in the appropriate 10 second window. So there you have it. I expect to be given first rights to the movie about this story.

Date: Fri Jul 11 17:23:03 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
Thank EZ-Ed and good point jimmyp, though a bit stressful … smile And thanks for your congrats roo.! It makes sense that the “dealer” knows about your current streak, so that you will be dealt with different games in your current streak. For a 4x4 game this dependency would it make even more unlikely that you get another solvable game if you are in a streak, but my point is, that if there is a dependency, it might be a software bug or Denny might use the required database query in a way that is not known by anyone else. Both could change dependencies and thus likelihoods. I don’t know anything about Denny’s program, but my point was is that unless it is proven that the dealer deals independently, mathematical considerations don’t prove anything. I would not accept a glance at Denny’s software as proof by the way. Every piece of software he could show to me, may have been changed before … And what concerns streak 4: I am hesitating very much. It seems to me that just people who have no clue about probabilities and mathematics think they can conclude that there must be some kind of manipulation, just if something is unlikely. To have streak 4 instead of streak 3 would increase this crowd even more… Here is something to think about for non-mathematicians: Statistically the odds being struck by a lightning are 606,944 to one, but this happened to U.S. park ranger Roy C. Sullivan seven times during his life time. Men are struck four times as often as women (hint: consider dependencies!!) And consider what roo. said or – even better - the famous Aristotle : “It is likely that something unlikely will happen."

Date: Fri Jul 11 20:07:52 2008
User: xeena
Message:
User: EZ-Ed. Message: I've never understood why some in Netcell like to cast suspicions, without a shred of evidence, that another player somehow used unsavory methods in accomplishing a streak. In any game on the internet, when someone is really good, they get accused by somebody of cheating. PS: Isn't Denny older than that?

Date: Fri Jul 11 20:24:29 2008
User: CubicSprock
Message:
I certainly don't think a streak of 31 is impossible...I just found it suspicious to be achieved with such a horrible winning percentage. And yes I understand 'pure' math doesn't always work, and I point that out when I make my statement, but of course you ignore that. And sure it's not impossible to win 3 straight, but I'm suspicious because of how things developed here on the board. And look at total stats in 4x4, something like...274 total wins. So a streak of 1 has only been reached at most 272 times...likely at least a handful weren't even done in streak mode. Also, it's worth noting about 75 people have their current streak of 1 intact....so based on this attempts for a streak of 2 have been made at most 197 times. If 1% of 4x4's are winnable, and assuming the person with a streak of 1 played extremely carefully and was able to win a deal given it was winnable...then on average there would be 1.97 streaks of 2 achieved and 0.0197 streaks of 3. So, based on how many total 4x4's have been won thus far, the probability is around 2% that someone would run up a streak of 3. So, not impossible...but very odd especially given how things developed on this discussion board.

Date: Fri Jul 11 20:32:27 2008
User: kenwa
Message:
So my math was way off, like I said I'm not a math whizz, so it sounds like the odds are 1 in 10-14 million of getting 3 in a row then? I can heartily congratulate 2 in a row, but 3 just seems a little unbelievable. In all the years no-one has made 2 and then it is 3? If it's real and true then you should turn to buying lottery tickets SirPape!

Date: Fri Jul 11 21:10:42 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
CubicSprock, “pure” math works pretty well and for that reason mathematics is a very successful science. You don’t think that it is possible to win a streak of 31 with such a horrible winning percentage? Or that this it at least suspicious? Well, I’ll give you an example: Let come a new player into Netcell who plays 10000 games and does not win a single game. Then this guy meets you in chat and you share your knowledge about playing freecell with him. After that chat he says: “wow, this admirable CubicSprock knows how to play freecell. From now on I will just do like he told me!” Then this guy manages to win a streak of 31. Now calculate his winning percentage! You will find it most horrible! And now tell the poor guy that his streak was highly suspicious due to his horrible winning percentage!!! What kind of logic is this? What kind of math is this? Only because he improved his skills you are concluding things that can’t be concluded? Sorry, but pure Math is something else. Maybe you just imagine humans to be like machines with a constant winning percentage? Well it is time you realize that human beings are capable to learn!!

Date: Fri Jul 11 21:18:21 2008
User: CubicSprock
Message:
wow...lol...way to twist around what I said.

Date: Fri Jul 11 21:28:49 2008
User: SirPape
Message:
kenwa, if you find my streak unbelievable and are too tired to carefully read what dr.jimmyp, roo. and I wrote about math, my advice is: Don’t believe it!! It won’t hurt me! And be assured that I already did things by my skills that earned me much more than to put up a streak and that I have planned further actions, that are even better.

Date: Fri Jul 11 21:53:44 2008
User: Pads
Message:
Wow, 3 in 4x4 well done, the 4x5 record is only 2 and suddenly my 4x6 record of 3 looks pretty bad.

Date: Fri Jul 11 22:49:13 2008
User: kangaroo
Message:
I draw CubicSprock's attention to the All Time 8x2 list where streaks over 20 have been achieved. We have: (player, streak, win%, av time) yoda, 21, 50.15%, 2:32 aprcosta, 22, 54.47%, 4:19 hajro, 22, 57.11%, 4:46 lemons, 24, 50.29%, 3.18 SirPape, 31, 50.92%, 7:03 Seems to me SirPape has good company. He takes longer because of careful play, enabling a streak of 31 to be achieved. No outlier there mate! Another consideration: if we ever organised a "4x4 day" where every single netcell player spent an hour playing 4x4s only, we'd see heaps of streaks of 1, a few of 2 and maybe one of 3 or even 4. And that's just in one day. The reason this has taken so long is the extremely low playing rate.

Date: Fri Jul 11 23:17:15 2008
User: CubicSprock
Message:
roo, all 4 of those other players have played significantly more 8x2 games...combine that with their streaks all being less and I really don't see those 4 numbers as very similar to Pape's stats. Again, don't take suspicious to mean "you cheated" take it to mean, it doesn't really add up...which he's explained saying he played alot early on and didn't pay much attention causing his current winning percentage to be a poor indication of his current skill level. The 4x4 thing is still weird, just because of all the weird comments Pape has been making in this thread. If it's real, whatever great...if it's some prank by Denny...again whatever. 4x4's are obviously mostly luck of the draw...of course you have to win the winnable games, but still, maybe Pape's the 1 in a million guy who got 3 winnable deals...and looks like he started another game that he's been in for 4 hours now. What he's doing I don't know, and really don't care. roo...valid points, we'd probably get a few 2's...depending on how many played...but consider 130,000 4x4's have already been played giving those 274 wins...so in 130,000 plays nobody had won more than 1 in a row.

Date: Fri Jul 11 23:31:32 2008
User: aprcosta
Message:
I like that idea, roo!

Date: Sat Jul 12 08:54:04 2008
User: roo.
Message:
CubicSprock wrote: "roo, all 4 of those other players have played significantly more 8x2 games...combine that with their streaks all being less and I really don't see those 4 numbers as very similar to Pape's stats." In that case when SirPape has played ten times more games (and his 597 to date is already a fair number) his win % will likely be much nearer yours. I rest my case.

Date: Sat Jul 12 11:03:40 2008
User: xeena
Message:
Sorry if anyone thought I accused someone of cheating (I did, SORT OF, wrongly, but apologized right away at my dumb mistake.) and I'm sorry if anyone thought I accused anyone of accusing anyone of cheating. I DID NOT. I only pointed out what I personally have observed playing various games on the internet.. someone always has something to say ... but yes, the thread itself does lead to suspicion. I only was trying to answer Ed's question. SORRY. AND I have the attitude that, even if someone DOES cheat (and that's a subjective term that I personally don't use in this context.. internet games) in an internet game... I don't give a crap, whatever floats your boat. Kudos for whatever work went into it. At any rate, most of all, I'm sorry I have to explain myself. Peace Out