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Subject: Seldom won winnable games.

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Date: Sun Mar 24 17:48:56 2024
User: rbw--3
Message:

This one didn't seem too difficult. Was surprised it had only been won once.

Can't figure why ELO's on 8x4 level 8 games with similar % are close to 200 points higher. Same with the next game played 41% game that was about 1500 before I played while similar 8x4 are upper 1600's to 1700's

9x2 12875-8Winnable4:45Won15.4%17722

13





Date: Thu Mar 28 09:28:37 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

Nice game, and nice 'Elo' reward:

         Game: W6x5 5683-10;  

Game stats: 19/1/5.3%/2251; 

   Player Elo: 2247.264 ▲ 4.137.


Date: Fri Mar 29 06:05:18 2024
User: roo
Message:

They keep on coming! Makes up for me losing three consecutive winnable 9x0s.

Game:9x0 8643-5
Game stats:31/2/6.5%/2165
Player Elo:1737.266  7.420
Elapsed:6:54



Date: Sat Mar 30 11:30:36 2024
User: ElGuapo
Message:

rbw--3 wrote: "Can't figure why ELO's on 8x4 level 8 games with similar % are close to 200 points higher."

We likely have the broadest range of individual game ratings in 8x4, because they've been played the most since game ratings started, pushing them higher and lower away from the mean. The other games have a fairly tight range and probably always will.


Date: Sat Mar 30 12:32:46 2024
User: GoAdoptADog!
Message:

Guapo, this is why when I’m trying to score elo after a crash, I always pick a climate 9 or 11 or so. Because usually the level 12 has been played a lot and also the level 5 or below, so I don’t get as much elo per win. 

I like that system though, it encourages me to seek out variants and levels of variants that aren’t as often played. 


Date: Sat Mar 30 14:33:35 2024
User: ElGuapo
Message:

I agree. It turns out that in most variants the level 7 games were rated most accurately right out of the gate. Levels 5 and 6 were often underrated, and the higher levels were rated higher than they deserved. Level 10 and 12 have mostly come down, so I see the most value in playing levels 8, 9, and 11 usually.


Date: Mon Apr 1 06:30:37 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

Not much of an 'Elo' for this one:

        Game: 7x3 26418-5;
Game stats: 43/2/4.7%/1720;
  Player Elo: 2242.528 ▲ 0.377.


Date: Mon Apr 1 22:30:58 2024
User: AKB
Message:

Bloody dog. Some winnable games suddenly become unwinnable when the dog sits on your hand and triggers a move you don't want. lol


Date: Mon Apr 1 22:34:47 2024
User: roo
Message:

Here's a doozy. I couldn't win it!

Game:13x0 3643-5
Game stats:415/42/10.1%/1836
Elo:1755.273 -3.156
Elapsed:14:27
Streak was:7



Date: Tue Apr 2 00:48:10 2024
User: cellmate
Message:

 13x0 3643-5 gut feeling on the 2nd try was the tens are too tempting so stay away


Date: Tue Apr 2 02:26:21 2024
User: roo
Message:

Well done cellmate! Usually I replay such games but with this one I could not contemplate it! One consolation - at level 5 not a lot of play was forfeited! 


Date: Tue Apr 2 17:57:03 2024
User: TitanicTony
Message:

Game: 10x0 4558-5;   Game stats: 24/2/8.3%/2042;   Player Elo: 2323.873 ▲ 1.335.


Date: Tue Apr 2 19:35:05 2024
User: redberet
Message:

That variant was handing these out by the bushel this morning.

4/2 13:47 10x0 23930-5 Streak 9:49 Won 10.5% 2003 2 19

4/2 13:26 10x0 5720-5 Streak 4:56 Won   7.1% 2059 2 28

4/2  6:33 10x0 1571-5 Streak 7:13 Won   6.9% 2068 2 29

4/2  4:13 10x0 2068-5 Streak 4:05 Won 15.4% 1893 4 26

4/2  2:52 10x0 5594-5 Streak 5:46 Won 10.3% 1994 3 29

4/2  1:57 10x0 13026-5 Streak 7:10 Won 16%          2021 4 25


Date: Wed Apr 3 02:16:03 2024
User: sebcbien2
Message:

impressive red !


Date: Wed Apr 3 22:55:20 2024
User: redberet
Message:

Thanks seb, I was prepping for todays contest, but that didn't help much. The 10x0 is rough territory. I also had a streak of 9 unnwinnables. For a moment I thought I was playing 8's.


Date: Fri Apr 5 18:46:05 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

Last Wednesday, this w10x1 game was WAY beyond me!

4/3     10:49     10x1     3980-8     Winnable     11:45     Lost     1.2%     2119     1     82.












Date: Sat Apr 6 15:04:42 2024
User: redberet
Message:

Not as tough as the stats, but what do I know?



Date: Sat Apr 6 15:06:57 2024
User: Uberman
Message:

Wow, nice going red! 😮


Date: Tue Apr 9 14:59:11 2024
User: gregorykicks
Message:

The game stats on this one were interesting. 




Date: Tue Apr 9 18:00:56 2024
User: kangaroo
Message:

Congrats for winning it Gregory.

 I was intrigued by the total plays being so high and looked it up. These are the top 10 for 8x4 level 5. This game is ranked 7th. But how did the top two get to be about double the others?





Date: Tue Apr 9 18:07:53 2024
User: kangaroo
Message:

For interest these are the top five for lowest number of plays in 8x4 level 5.


Date: Wed Apr 10 05:33:49 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

        Game: W8x3 7756-10;
Game stats: 22/3/13.6%/1917;
  Player Elo: 2238.596 ▲ 1.100.


Date: Wed Apr 10 09:57:07 2024
User: gregorykicks
Message:

@Kangaroo, those are some interesting numbers. I'm no statistician, but I wouldn't think that two games could have double the next highest if all games were selected randomly. Not with the volume of total games we're looking at. 


Date: Wed Apr 10 15:37:50 2024
User: kangaroo
Message:
Thanks Gregory - it looks like I was asking the question to you but it was for anyone to answer. Mr.Fixit?

Date: Wed Apr 10 15:55:32 2024
User: roo
Message:

Unusual game! Two columns are cleared before any Aces can be sent home. Getting them there is the tricky bit.

Game:12x0 400-5
Game stats:51/13/25.5%/1715
Player Elo:1721.763  4.023
Elapsed:4:38
Streak:1

Date: Thu Apr 11 13:18:16 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

        Game: 10x0 19567-5;
Game stats: 20/2/10%/2014;
  Player Elo: 2228.783 ▲ 1.829.


Date: Thu Apr 11 16:09:12 2024
User: Ellie2
Message:

Gee, almost 2 in a row!

        Game: 10x0 9701-5;
Game stats: 26/2/7.7%/2045;
  Player Elo: 2230.867 ▲ 2.083.


Date: Sun Apr 14 10:30:25 2024
User: sebcbien2
Message:

I did a little nap during this game ;-)

Game:12x0 3188-5
Game stats:31/3/9.7%/1833
Player Elo:1943.027  2.839
Elapsed:27:04


first time won at first attempt ! (ix in custom mode probaly chasing unwon games, and Edd in custom mode after a loss)

20220228.csv:1646075722,ix,12,0,5,3188,L,1,182

20220228.csv:1646078189,ix,12,0,5,3188,W,1,266

20230327.csv:1679949104,Edd,12,0,5,3188,L,0,172

20230327.csv:1679949244,Edd,12,0,5,3188,L,1,131

20230327.csv:1679949378,Edd,12,0,5,3188,W,1,130



Date: Mon Apr 15 17:55:57 2024
User: rbw--3
Message:

Thought this was lost after about 3 moves

Winnable7:17Won6%1973583

Date: Mon Apr 15 19:06:04 2024
User: roo
Message:

Thought I'd add the full picture!

4/1517:519x2 18046-5Winnable7:17Won6%1973583



Date: Mon Apr 15 19:35:40 2024
User: rbw--3
Message:

thanks. Posting without a game number is kinda useless. I had it there and there then realized I left off the 5 / 83. Then I cut off the even more important part before I posted.


Date: Tue Apr 16 11:35:18 2024
User: TitanicTony
Message:
Game: W8x3 20072-7;.....  Game stats: 13/2/15.4%/1765;.....  Player Elo: 2313.123 ▲ 0.328.







Date: Wed Apr 17 14:36:54 2024
User: smelly_cootiefied_fence_post
Message:

Whoa....   Hard game, but not *that* hard.  Only 'moderately' odiferous:


W9x2 10058-7
Game stats:109/3/2.8%/2089

Date: Thu Apr 18 12:49:20 2024
User: TitanicTony
Message:

Once you find the first 3 moves, this game practically plays itsself -- only 37 moves.  But, I'll take it!

Game: 11x0 30978-5;.....  Game stats: 39/2/5.1%/2102;.....  Player Elo: 2315.862 ▲ 1.839.

Moves: 37/90.


Date: Thu Apr 18 13:32:55 2024
User: TitanicTonys_deckofcards
Message:

Those "first 3 moves" took us probably 40 tries to figure out!


Date: Thu Apr 18 14:33:12 2024
User: BuzzClik
Message:

The Titanic family should introduce itself on Denny's thread, here.


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